Month	Actual Sales
Jan-1992	9,001
Feb-1992	9,039
Mar-1992	10,547
Apr-1992	11,608
May-1992	12,200
Jun-1992	12,171
Jul-1992	11,659
Aug-1992	11,210
Sep-1992	11,287
Oct-1992	11,607
Nov-1992	10,145
Dec-1992	10,472
Jan-1993	8,953
Feb-1993	9,231
Mar-1993	11,061
Apr-1993	12,365
May-1993	13,232
Jun-1993	13,174
Jul-1993	12,523
Aug-1993	12,457
Sep-1993	12,104
Oct-1993	12,206
Nov-1993	11,867
Dec-1993	11,866
Jan-1994	9,705
Feb-1994	9,884
Mar-1994	12,639
Apr-1994	13,887
May-1994	14,975
Jun-1994	14,701
Jul-1994	13,563
Aug-1994	14,255
Sep-1994	13,763
Oct-1994	13,875
Nov-1994	12,929
Dec-1994	12,960
Jan-1995	11,018
Feb-1995	10,972
Mar-1995	13,451
Apr-1995	13,858
May-1995	15,790
Jun-1995	15,404
Jul-1995	14,109
Aug-1995	14,737
Sep-1995	13,934
Oct-1995	14,545
Nov-1995	13,599
Dec-1995	13,171
Jan-1996	11,569
Feb-1996	11,790
Mar-1996	13,360
Apr-1996	15,645
May-1996	17,080
Jun-1996	16,154
Jul-1996	16,160
Aug-1996	15,790
Sep-1996	14,884
Oct-1996	16,153
Nov-1996	14,440
Dec-1996	13,692
Jan-1997	12,507
Feb-1997	12,464
Mar-1997	15,005
Apr-1997	17,201
May-1997	18,444
Jun-1997	17,621
Jul-1997	17,458
Aug-1997	16,315
Sep-1997	16,658
Oct-1997	17,320
Nov-1997	14,785
Dec-1997	15,309
Jan-1998	13,264
Feb-1998	13,153
Mar-1998	15,983
Apr-1998	18,388
May-1998	19,118
Jun-1998	19,111
Jul-1998	18,350
Aug-1998	17,097
Sep-1998	17,261
Oct-1998	17,949
Nov-1998	16,110
Dec-1998	16,498
Jan-1999	13,849
Feb-1999	14,283
Mar-1999	17,689
Apr-1999	19,766
May-1999	20,691
Jun-1999	20,664
Jul-1999	19,492
Aug-1999	18,965
Sep-1999	18,393
Oct-1999	18,699
Nov-1999	18,129
Dec-1999	17,672
Jan-2000	15,298
Feb-2000	15,892
Mar-2000	20,074
Apr-2000	20,201
May-2000	23,184
Jun-2000	21,842
Jul-2000	19,703
Aug-2000	20,183
Sep-2000	18,718
Oct-2000	19,401
Nov-2000	17,829
Dec-2000	16,898
Jan-2001	15,764
Feb-2001	15,522
Mar-2001	19,112
Apr-2001	22,247
May-2001	24,801
Jun-2001	22,686
Jul-2001	21,028
Aug-2001	21,155
Sep-2001	18,838
Oct-2001	21,057
Nov-2001	19,083
Dec-2001	17,484
Jan-2002	16,654
Feb-2002	16,084
Mar-2002	19,311
Apr-2002	24,146
May-2002	25,654
Jun-2002	23,025
Jul-2002	22,535
Aug-2002	21,552
Sep-2002	20,234
Oct-2002	21,674
Nov-2002	19,648
Dec-2002	18,047
Jan-2003	17,335
Feb-2003	15,632
Mar-2003	20,260
Apr-2003	24,056
May-2003	25,743
Jun-2003	24,929
Jul-2003	24,363
Aug-2003	22,691
Sep-2003	22,811
Oct-2003	24,035
Nov-2003	20,829
Dec-2003	20,678
Jan-2004	18,110
Feb-2004	17,841
Mar-2004	25,042
Apr-2004	27,955
May-2004	28,571
Jun-2004	28,734
Jul-2004	26,182
Aug-2004	25,479
Sep-2004	25,195
Oct-2004	24,892
Nov-2004	24,025
Dec-2004	23,342
Jan-2005	20,078
Feb-2005	19,916
Mar-2005	26,241
Apr-2005	29,606
May-2005	31,751
Jun-2005	31,163
Jul-2005	27,497
Aug-2005	28,364
Sep-2005	27,321
Oct-2005	27,643
Nov-2005	26,765
Dec-2005	24,428
Jan-2006	23,188
Feb-2006	22,669
Mar-2006	29,639
Apr-2006	30,815
May-2006	34,609
Jun-2006	31,976
Jul-2006	28,344
Aug-2006	29,225
Sep-2006	26,479
Oct-2006	27,654
Nov-2006	26,008
Dec-2006	23,485
Jan-2007	21,939
Feb-2007	20,719
Mar-2007	27,110
Apr-2007	28,685
May-2007	34,367
Jun-2007	30,542
Jul-2007	28,576
Aug-2007	28,307
Sep-2007	25,208
Oct-2007	27,409
Nov-2007	25,936
Dec-2007	22,238
Jan-2008	20,510
Feb-2008	20,240
Mar-2008	23,782
Apr-2008	28,607
May-2008	31,966
Jun-2008	29,386
Jul-2008	28,719
Aug-2008	25,457
Sep-2008	25,048
Oct-2008	25,785
Nov-2008	21,804
Dec-2008	20,751
Jan-2009	17,627
Feb-2009	16,980
Mar-2009	21,381
Apr-2009	24,776
May-2009	27,134
Jun-2009	26,342
Jul-2009	24,166
Aug-2009	21,480
Sep-2009	21,287
Oct-2009	21,212
Nov-2009	19,943
Dec-2009	19,174
Jan-2010	15,331
Feb-2010	15,340
Mar-2010	21,680
Apr-2010	26,381
May-2010	26,526
Jun-2010	25,602
Jul-2010	23,220
Aug-2010	21,660
Sep-2010	21,363
Oct-2010	21,937
Nov-2010	21,446
Dec-2010	20,361
Jan-2011	15,965
Feb-2011	15,840
Mar-2011	21,876
Apr-2011	24,306
May-2011	27,893
Jun-2011	27,051
Jul-2011	23,714
Aug-2011	23,832
Sep-2011	22,568
Oct-2011	23,077
Nov-2011	22,427
Dec-2011	21,217
Jan-2012	17,934
Feb-2012	18,345
Mar-2012	24,067
Apr-2012	25,714
May-2012	29,652
Jun-2012	26,013
Jul-2012	24,043
Aug-2012	24,305
Sep-2012	22,471
Oct-2012	24,720
Nov-2012	23,485
Dec-2012	21,177
Jan-2013	19,268
Feb-2013	18,455
Mar-2013	23,131
Apr-2013	28,713
May-2013	33,110
Jun-2013	28,038
Jul-2013	27,907
Aug-2013	26,334
Sep-2013	24,569
Oct-2013	26,272
Nov-2013	24,093
Dec-2013	22,393
Jan-2014	19,948
Feb-2014	18,813
Mar-2014	24,311
Apr-2014	30,309
May-2014	33,895
Jun-2014	30,623
Jul-2014	29,173
Aug-2014	26,940
Sep-2014	26,656
Oct-2014	27,865
Nov-2014	25,327
Dec-2014	24,610
Jan-2015	21,159
Feb-2015	19,800
Mar-2015	26,577
Apr-2015	31,591
May-2015	33,543
Jun-2015	31,926
Jul-2015	29,856

The file P12_46.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials, garden equipment, and supplies dealers. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. The seasonality pattern is in the colder months, in the warmer months. Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 Apr-2016 May-2016 Jun-2016 Jul-2016 c. Does Holt's exponential smoothing method, with optimal smoothing constants, outperform the moving average method employed in part b? Demonstrate why or why not. The moving average forecast errors are than the corresponding errors for Holt's forecast, but the seasonal pattern