Monthly Sales of Pumpkin at the local organic food market are in the table below.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

April

37

36

40

43

45

48

Required:

Forecast the May sales using each of the following:

1. Naive method. (2marks)
2. A four-month moving average. (5 marks)
3. A three-month weighted average using 4, 3, 2. with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. (8 marks)
4. Compute the forecast for May using exponential smoothing with a forecast for March of 45 and=0.2=0.2.(5 marks)