Name:_________________________________ Hypothesis Testing - In Class Activity The Significance of a Kiss I. Purpose: This activity is intended to illustrate properties of hypothesis testing and to describe how to perform hypothesis tests on a proportion. II. Materials and Introduction: 1. Each person should have 10 KISSES chocolates of the same variety and a 16-ounce plastic cup 2. Examine one of the KISSES chocolates. There are two possible outcomes when a KISSES chocolate is tossed - landing completely on the base or not landing completely on the base. 3. Estimate p, the proportion of the time that a KISSES chocolate will land completely on its base when tossed. 4. We will assume that p is approximately 50% and test the claim that the population proportion of Kisses chocolates that land completely on the base is less than 50%. 5. We will assume that p is approximately 35% and test the claim that the population proportion of Kisses chocolates that land completely on the base is different than 35%. III. Experiment: The investigation is as follows: 6. Put 10 KISSES chocolates into the cup 7. Gently shake the cup twice to help mix up the candies. 8. Tip the cup so the bottom of the rim is approximately 1 - 2 inches from the table and spill the candies. 9. Count the number of candies that land completely on their base. 10. Return the candies to the cup and repeat until you have spilled the candies 5 times. 11. Record your results on the Data Table. Data Table: Toss Number 1 Number of Candies Landing Completely on Base 4 2 3 3 4 6 5 5 Total IV. 3 21 Questions 1 We treat the 50 results for each student as 50 independent trials. Actually, each student has ten independent trials of 5 tosses each. We make the assumption that the 10 tosses within a trial are roughly independent to expedite data collection. 1. We will assume that p is approximately 50% for the following two tests. a. Test the claim that the population proportion of Kisses chocolates that land completely on the base is different than 50% at = 10% level of significance. State hypotheses and : Calculate the evidence - State test used and numbers typed into the calculator. Clearly state the p-value. State the complete decision rule then state clearly your decision. State your conclusion in context to the problem. b. Test the claim that the population proportion of Kisses chocolates that land completely on the base is less than 50% at = 10% level of significance. State hypotheses and : Calculate the evidence - State test used and numbers typed into the calculator. Clearly state the p-value. State the complete decision rule then state clearly your decision. State your conclusion in context to the problem. 2. We will assume that p is approximately 35% for the following two tests. 2 a. Test the claim that the population proportion of Kisses chocolates that land completely on the base is different than 35% at = 5% level of significance. State hypotheses and : Calculate the evidence - State test used and numbers typed into the calculator. Clearly state the p-value. State the complete decision rule then state clearly your decision. State your conclusion in context to the problem. b. Will your decision change if you test at = 10% level of significance? Explain why or why not. 3. Give an intuitive justification for why changing the sample size may result in changing the conclusion about a null hypothesis. 3