Name of experimental project: stock analysis 1. Purpose and Requirements: Based on the fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis and technical analysis to the stock of own position, point out the stock price pressure level, support level, wave band and so on, from the analysis of different periods, get the general trend of stock price in the future period, according to this judgment, clarify the corresponding operation strategy. 2. Equipment and Software: #TME, R-studio 3. Experiment method (flow chart) In this experiment, the basic analysis principle, the trend theory of technical analysis and the exponential model are mainly used. macroeconomic analysis The company's industry and main business 1 Level of competition in the same industry Quantitative analysis Technical analysis History Trend 1 Forecast the stock price in the future basic trend. 1 Investment strategy 14. Process The stock in my position: WANDADIANYING(002739) Fundamental analysis Macroeconomic Analysis: Since the first half of this year, China's macro economy weak stabilizing general characteristics, both import and export data of the demand side, continued high real estate investment and infrastructure investment is gradually warming, increase speed or supply side, the growth of the service industry, faced with adverse global economic situation and the global economy downward pressure, stable export and foreign investment in our country, realize the stable economic growth, the macro policy and accelerated the reform of its contribution. In the coming period, China's macro economy is still facing huge shocks and challenges, and much of the potential of China's economy still needs to be fully tapped and brought into full play through the structural adjustment of the domestic economy. In 2019, under the influence of multiple factors such as the overall intensification of trade conflicts between China and the United States, the synchronized decline of the world economy, the continuous fermentation of domestic structural factors, and the increase of cyclical downward forces, China's macro economy has said farewell to the 2016-2018 plateau period of "stability, moderation and moderation". In five pullback in short-term cycle factors, the three major traditional dividend rapidly and impact of triple two temporary emergencies, China's macro economy got full elasticity and toughness, in "six stability" as the core of counter-cyclical policies and continuous supply side under the hedge structural reform, China's macro economy successfully hold the bottom line, complete the expected goals. However, it is worth noting that in the process of economic growth decline, the structural differentiation of the economy is serious. The upgrading type of structural adjustment slows down, while the depression-type structural adjustment continues to accelerate, leading to a difficult period for China's economic structural adjustment in 2019. Real GDP growth for the whole of 2019 was about 6.4 per cent, and adjusted GDP growth was about 6.1 per cent. Under the benchmark scenario, CPI will grow by 2.1%, PPI by -0.3%, GDP deflator by 1.8%, consumption by 8.0%, investment by 5.7%, export by 1.6%, import by -0.9%, and RMB /USD exchange rate (CNY/USD) will remain in the range of 6.85-6.95. In 2018, 9,303 new screens were installed nationwide, bringing the total number of screens to 6,079. In recent years, the number of new screens in China has maintained at about 10,000 a year, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the state film administration, the total box office of Chinese films in 2018 was 60.976 billion yuan, up 9.06 percent from 55.11 billion yuan the previous year, and 1.716 billion people watched movies in urban cinemas, up 5.93 percent from 1.62 billion yuan the previous year. Of that total, domestic films made 37.897 billion yuan, accounting for 62.15 percent of the total. Industry Analysis The company's industry and main business Wanda film co., ltd. is a cinema line company mainly engaged in the investment, construction and operation management of cinemas, which belongs to the film industry. The company adopts the business model of asset linkage and chain operation to carry out the above business, and all the properties of the cinema are acquired by lease. The company's main products or services are: 1. Cinema screening. The company is a leading domestic cinema investment and operator, box office, audience, market share has been ranked first in China for ten consecutive years. 2. Selling products. There are two main categories of products for sale, namely film derivative products and catering products. 3. Advertise. The company's advertising business mainly includes screen advertising and position advertising, 4. Film production and distribution. The company mainly through the investment, production of films, the film box office revenue and derivative income, and obtain profits. 5. Production and distribution of TV series. The company mainly through investment, production of TV series, TV series to television stations and new media platform sales of copyright to obtain copyright sales and distribution income, and profit. 6. Game release. The company mainly distributes and operates online games to obtain game revenu and profit, including web games and mobile games. Level of competition in the same industry - % HA (%) 1975 188 MI 19E 29 002739 12.68 -14.58 -58.55 -4.20 11. 78 -102.04 7.77 16.07 -12. 70 -1.04 12.52 1 300688 56.30 --75.90 -50.74 220.79 2 300770 43.61 86.84 20.21 71.73 3 300133 39.74 -66.67 -4.88 4 4 002878 37.24 17.74 3. 46 43.57 5 600640 33.68 -1.32 -5.09 8.60 20E 21E 28.55 16. 19 16.83 16.01 16.27 15.48 11.82 6.45 36.53 20. 31 130.28 24.57 34.70 33.67 50.75 45.92 3 9.92 10.60 11.61 4.02 34.99 -1.94 31.09 19. 78 (%) 18A TTM 19E 6. 49 0.14 6.32 5.63 -1.09 6.16 5.13 -0.60 7.79 81.52 -23.62 -0.16 44.22 15.49 53.22 10.52 --22.26 -37.98 28.36 8.93 40.06 -18.31 -1.26 7.67 20E 21E 12.04 10.89 13. 20 12.58 12.79 12.90 7.37 5.00 28.95 24.50 32.54 14. 71 27.74 25.40 31.14 21.72 fa PEG TTRI 21E 40 16.18 1.34 TTU 19E 205.17 30.42 -55.72 32.27 18.10 20.81 10.96 17.28 16.67 12.99 23.38 17.25 10.24 9.21 10.71 10.99 002739 600136 002425 300058 600757 601900 0.35 184 29.14 -1382.94 22.98 43.13 17.69 36.31 10.35 12.74 1 2 20E 23.66 27.63 22.29 23.04 10.30 18.12 7.92 9.88 21E 20. 36 23.99 18.99 18.89 8.65 15.64 7.21 8.74 19E 2.52 3.81 3.85 2.72 4.71 0.51 1.14 1.33 18A 2.73 2.24 3.11 1.49 6.43 0.41 0.76 1.35 2.87 2. 78 3.66 2.86 5.40 0.55 0.92 1.32 20E 2.24 3.37 3.27 2.28 3.61 0.43 1.09 1. 20 2.02 3.01 2.84 1.96 2.96 0.37 1.02 1.07 0.62 0.72 3 4 5 0.80 0.80 Profitability in the industry ranked 29, in the middle level = 3 , , 1. a. a 0 0. 60 0 5 g 10 0 7 0 0 9 11 2014 1 1 2 3 1 4,;,10% : , 2018 2019 00 0.79.14 0.60 37.7 0.7 21.3 0.18,65 2.14 0.8 24.02 0.7 4.,14,4,5, 0.9 4,064 19 1.139. 14:3.5g 5.6 0.5 19.10.94 17.50 3.1 3 4 1 2. ,349.co0- 1,14,091 | 10.3 2014 ,5 21.70.19 4. 9,14.3 0.7 17.10 1.6 15. 0.9 9.14 0.. 29 24.0.08 21.21 10 0 1 20011 201 However, it has great potential for development. 5. Data processing and analysis Quantitative analysis Code library(quantmod) setSymbolLookup(WDDY=list(name=1002739.SZ',from=2015-07-29, to=2019-12-05" src=y ahoo')) getSymbols("WDDY") chartSeries(WDDY) head(WDDY,3) tail(WDDY,3) addSMAO addIMACD() addBBands return_WDDY-(WDDY$ 002739.SS.Close- WDDY$ 002739.SS.Open j/WDDYS2002739.SS.Open library(quantmod) setSymbolLookup(SSEC-Alist[name=1000001.ss' from='2011-07-29 to="2019-12-05" src=yahool]) getSymbols("SSEC") chartSeries(SSEC) return_SSEC=(SSECS '000001.SS.Close-SSECS 000001.SS.Open")/SSECS"000001.SS. Open return WDDY-as.numeric(return_GZMT) returnSSEC-as.numeric(return_SSEC) summary(return WDDY) skewness(return WDDY) kurtosis(return WDDY) plot(returnSSEC return WDDY) abline(Im(return WDDY-returnSSEC)) hist(return WDDY) curvednorm(x),min(return WDDY),max(return WDDY),add =Tlwd=2) plot(density(return WDDY)) boxplot(return WDDY) mymodel=Im(return WDDY-returnSSEC) summary(mymodel) K-line with MA, MACD, BOLL #MA, MACD, BOLLAK BY 99 1500 30909 509ESPREY SERU BOLLE 20:2 BOLL 2385 UPPER 40:54 LOWER 7.187 2 VOLS, 10) VOLUME 3712963.000 MAVOL 1 2724033 900 HOLZ 3308 3008 2 MAGD(12-25 DF-5016 + DEA-5582 WCD000 + 15 201201507/2015 202819 E RE E MACD" ROURS BOU WR DEN BAS DE BRAR CCI DA DKX CR PSY KD DHA TRIXES skew=0.3274357 kurtosis= 1.539505 The summary of stock return summary(return WDDY) 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. . -0.0711521 -0.0089767 0.0002487 0.0016239 0.0114799 0.0889995 Min The distribution of stock's return Histogram of returnWDDY O 005 0.00 0.05 returnWDDY The index model of individual stock and Index o o O O 0.05 O returnWDDY 0.00 8 O o o -0.05 o o O O -0.05 0.00 0.05 returnSSEC The regression result Call: Im(formula = returnWDDY - returnSSEC) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.056970 -0.009626 -0.001192 0.008424 0.075575 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pret) (Intercept) 0.0007702 0.0003498 2.202 0.0278 * returnSSEC 0.7125511 0.0285095 24.993