Need answers in excel. Please help. Thank you!!

ForecastingHomework

1. The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past 3 years from its sales records: Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast (MA3) for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast (MA5) for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13, using weights of 0.50, 0.33, and 0.17 for the most recent, next most recent, and third most recent data points (WMA3(.5,.33,.17)) and compute the forecast error for each quarter. Compare the forecasts using Bias and MAD. Which method do you think is best.

2. The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in production and operations management next semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters: Compute a three-semester moving average forecast (MA3) for semesters 4 through 9. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast ( = .20) for the enrollment data. Compare the forecasts using Bias and MAD. Determine the method you think is best?

3. The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months: Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with = .40, for months 211. Compute the trend projection for periods 1 through 11. Compare the forecasts using Bias and MAD. Which method do you think is best?

4. The Whistle Stop Caf in Weems, Georgia, is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, which it makes in a small plant in back of the caf. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two ladies who own the cage want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production operation and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the caf. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters: Use the ice cream sales data in this problem to decompose the quarterly time series data and forecast the next four quarters.

5. The manager of the Ramona Inn Hotel near Cloverleaf Stadium believes that how well the local Blue sox professional baseball team is playing has an impact on the occupancy rate at the hotel during the summer months. Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox (in a 162 game schedule) for the past 8 years and the hotel occupancy rates: Develop a linear regression model for these data, and forecast the occupancy rate for next year if the Blue Sox win 88 games. In addition, calculate r and r2 and interpret each one. Is this a good forecasting method for the given data?