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Not wanting to leave your beloved alma mater, you have come up with a scheme to stay around for 5 more years: You have decided

Not wanting to leave your beloved alma mater, you have come up with a scheme to stay around for 5 more years: You have decided to bid on the fast-food concession rights at the football stadium. You feel sure that a bid of $30,000 will win the concession, which gives you the right to sell food at football games for the next 5 years. You estimate that annual operating costs will be 40% of sales and annual sales will average $50,000, Your Uncle Ned has agreed to lend you the $30,000 to make you bid. You will pay him $7,700 at the end of each year. Your tax rate is 28%. (a) Use a spreadsheet model to answer the following question. What is your average annual after-tax profit? Assume that the yearly payments of $7,700 are tax deductible. (b) You realize that sales will probably vary from year to year. Suppose that sales can vary plus or minus 40% from the average of $50,000. You are concerned about the minimum after-tax profit you can earn in a year. You can survive if it is at lease $8,000. Model annual sales for the 5 years as five continuous uniform random variables. Based on a sample of 4,000 five-year periods, estimate the probability that over any five-year period the minimum after-tax profit for a year will be at least $8,000. Will you bid for the concession?

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