Question
Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. It costs $90,000 to drill for oil. If oil is
Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. It costs $90,000 to drill for oil. If oil is found, the revenue is estimated to be $700,000. At present, Oilco believes there is a 40% chance that the field contains oil. Before drilling, Oilco can hire (for $20,000) a geologist to obtain more information about the likelihood that the field will contain oil. There is a 70% chance that the geologist will issue a favorable report and a 30% chance of an unfavorable report. Given a favorable report, there is an 60% chance that the field contains oil. Given an unfavorable report, there is a 10% chance that the field contains oil. Determine the optimal strategy, the expected profit, EVSI and EVPI. What is the optimal strategy? (5pts) Select one: a. Hire a geologist. If favorable report, then drill; if unfavorable report, then do not drill. b. Dont hire a geologist and dont drill. c. Dont hire a geologist and drill. d. Hire a geologist. If favorable report, then dont drill; if unfavorable report, then drill.
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