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Old MathJax webview decision tree has been already made. so please answer from part b. 5) Hale's TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for
Old MathJax webview
decision tree has been already made. so please answer from part b.
5) Hale's TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major television network. The network may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, Hale may either produce the pilot and wait for the network's decision or transfer the rights for the pilot and series to a competitor for $100,000. Hale's decision alternatives and profits (in thousands of dollars) are as follows: Prodace pilot Selle competitor, Reject. -100 100 1 Years 50 100 2 Years, sy 150 100 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(51) = 0.65, P(52) = 0.25, and P(53) = 0.1. For a consulting fee of $5000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favorable network reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review will result in a favorable (F) or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant: P = 0.69 PU) = 0,31 PS,F) = 0.09 PE) = 0.26 PS: 1) - 0,65 PE, U) = 045 PE, U) - 0.39 POU-0.16 a. Construct a decision tree for this problem. - 100 S/0.09 EV = (-100)(0.04) + 0.26 (50) +0,65 (1ro) - 101.5 EV- = 101.5 (0.69)+ 100(0.31) = 10:04 (G 320.26 50 di 0.65 101.5 150 3 Fo.69 100 siolog EV = 100 $101040 $ 5000 2 $10.26 Too $10.65 100 100 di S, 0.45 - 100 DO U 0.31 EV = (-100)0.45 4 50 (0.39) t150 (0.16) = -1.5 4. d2 520.39 50 55016 150 100 1520.39100 100 S. 0.45 Eva 100 Don't 550/6 Si 0.65 \oo di S 53 el -100 (520.25 So EV10- (-1010-65 50 (0.25) 150 + 150 (0:1) = - 37.5 Too dal Strategy Don't need the agency review "sell the pilot S2021 100 EV100 53 > d2 el 100 EV WOPI b. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the expected value? C. What is the expected value of perfect information? d. What is Hale's optimal decision strategy assuming the agency's information is used? e. What is the expected value of the agency's information? Is the agency's information worth the $5000 fee? What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the informationStep by Step Solution
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