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On a given GNV-ATL flight, there are 200 seats and each seat is sold at an average ticket price of $ 250. It has been

On a given GNV-ATL flight, there are 200 seats and each seat is sold at an average ticket price of $ 250. It has been observed that on most days in the past month, the flight rarely approaches 100% occupancy since there are passenger no-shows. Hence, the airline decides to overbook flights. The airline manager assigned the task of determining the number of seats to overbook on this flight starts by estimating no-shows using historical information. However, she encounters an interesting conundrum: the mean no-shows changes based on the rate offered to customers with a confirmed booking who are denied a seat on the flight (referred to as the service denial rate).

Three specific service denial rates being contemplated by the airline manager and their associated mean are: (a) service denial rate = $ 400, mean = 45, std deviation = 16; (b) service denial rate = $ 500, mean = 35, std deviation = 16; and (c) service denial rate = $ 600, mean = 25, std deviation = 16. It is safe to assume that the distribution of no-shows for each service denial rate is normal.

Complete the following table showing all supporting analytics.

Service

Denial

Rate

Optimal

Overbooks

Y*

(seats)

Percentage of time passengers with a confirmed reservation will be denied a seat

(%)

Expected number of passengers with a confirmed reservation who will be denied a seat

Expected Loss from denying a

seat to passengers with a confirmed reservation

($)

Expected number of empty seats

Expected loss from empty seats

($)

$ 400
$ 500
$ 600

Based on the results in the table, answer the following questions:

  • Which service denial rate should be chosen if the manager wants to minimize the percentage of time customers with a confirmed reservation will be denied a seat?
  • Which service denial rate should be chosen if the manager wants to minimize the expected Loss from denying a seat to passengers with a confirmed reservation?
  • Which service denial rate should be chosen if the manager wants to minimize the Expected loss from empty seats?

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