Question
On April 6 an Arkansas corn producer wants to hedge the price for his corn crop. He typically sells his corn crop in late August
On April 6 an Arkansas corn producer wants to hedge the price for his corn crop. He typically sells his corn crop in late August of each year (approx. Aug 25), and he expects this year to be the same. He maintains good records and the following are his cash receipts from the past 10 years along with the futures market prices. Calculate his historical basis for each year provided. To accomplish this, you must select the correct futures contract and time period (the cash price is based on Aug 25 of each year). Time of year ~Aug 25~Apr 6~Aug 25~Aug 25Year CashMay FuturesSep FuturesDec FuturesYear t-10$5.11 $5.35 $5.60 $5.78 Year t-9$3.02 $3.54 $3.21 $3.27 Year t-8$4.11 $3.70 $4.13 $4.28 Year t-7$6.83 $7.04 $7.20 $7.32 Year t-6$7.32 $6.46 $8.06 $8.11 Year t-5$4.70 $7.10 $4.90 $4.72 Year t-4$3.74 $4.66 $3.66 $3.64 Year t-3$3.54 $3.96 $3.69 $3.73 Year t-2$3.32$3.69$3.33$3.33Year t-1$3.53 $3.87 $3.48 $3.63 1. Calculate the 10-year Olympic average basis using the appropriate futures contract month (only one futures contract should be selected), based on these past 10 years of cash and futures prices. {This will be the expected basis.}2. Is this producer a long or short hedger?3. What is his expected price, using the expected basis the 10-year Olympic average basis -- and the appropriate contract price listed here? CME Group Corn Futures Price on April 6:May contract$3.302September contract$3.406December contract$3.484
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