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On this same rig, you have been told by a wellhead pumper that one of the pumps is a specialty pump that requires at least

On this same rig, you have been told by a wellhead pumper that one of the pumps is a specialty pump that requires at least 3 weeks to be fabricated and delivered to the rig. Because of its cost, management has decided they are willing to accept the risk of having to wait for the pump to fail since the meantime between failure (MTBF) is 10,000 hours if maintained properly. Some of the other rigs have experienced issues with the pumps before achieving MTBF; however, that does not matter to rig management. The pump costs $4,000,000. The probability of an event occurring is 30 percent, and the cost of this event would be the loss of 20,000 barrels per day for 3 weeks. Each barrel is worth $61.22. Calculate the risk value (showing your work), and then draft a response to management either defending or opposing the position of not having a spare onboard the rig.

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