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Only solve the question in the picture 3 . 7 The average annual U . S . landed cost of Saudi Arabian Light Crude Oil
Only solve the question in the picture The average annual US landed cost of Saudi Arabian Light Crude Oil in US dollars
per barrel for is provided in SAoilpricesxlsx
a Use the observed value for as the starting value, and compute the onestep
ahead SES forecasts for subsequent years for each of alpha and in turn.
b With the same starting value, find the optimal level for alpha using the data for
the period as the estimation sample. Use the ESM or other suitable
software.
c Generate the forecasts for
d Compute the outofsample RMSE, MAE, and MAPE for each case, and contrast
the results. Does using the median rather than the mean make any difference?
Repeat the analysis in Exercise using linear exponential smoothing. Use the
ESM or other suitable software. Compare the forecasting performance of the two
methods.Refer to Exercise What is the error of your onestep ahead forecast for when alpha
is beta is
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