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Ontario Power Generation has been collecting data on demand for electric power in its western subregion for only the past 2 years. Those data
Ontario Power Generation has been collecting data on demand for electric power in its western subregion for only the past 2 years. Those data are shown in the table below. Demand in Megawatts Month Last Year This Year January 5 16 February 8 13 March 11 19 April 13 23 May 19 30 June 14 39 July 23 46 August 28 41 September 22 34 October 15 24 November December 12 15 25 18 To plan for expansion and to arrange to borrow power from neighboring utilities during peak periods, the utility needs to be able to forecast demand for each month next year. However, the standard forecasting models will not fit the data observed for the 2 years. a) What are the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniques as applied to this set of data? The standard forecasting techniques are not appropriate, because b) Because known models are not appropriate here, the following m The approach would be to calculate the increase from each month month this year plus the average increase over the 12 months of la c) Forecast demand for each month next year using the proposed n The forecasts for the next year are (round your responses to the ne there is not enough data to make a good forecast. the data does not contain cycles. there is not enough data to make a good forecast and the given data contains both seasonal and trend factors. the data contains both seasonal and trend factors. for the same
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