Outcome x ($Billion) Calculation Pr(Outcome| D) 0 0. 150+0.099 0.249 5 0. 170+0.250+0. 165 0.585 10.3 0. 100+0.066 0. 166 1.000 Risk Profile D-"Counter $5 Billion, refuse counter offer of $3 Billion if given" Pr(Outcome|D) 0.8 0.6 0.585 0.4 0.2 0.249 0:166 O -1 2 5 8 11 Outcome ($Billion) Cumulative Risk Profile D-"Counter $5 Billion, refuse counter offer of $3 Billion if given" Pr(Outcome s x|D) 0.8 0.834 0.834 0.6 0.4 0.249 0.2 0.249- O -1 2 5 8 11