Over the coming year, Ragwort$$s stock price might drop from $$100$ to $$50,$ or it might rise to $$200.$ The one$-$year interest rate is $10\%.$

What is the delta of a one$-$year call option on Ragwort stock with an exercise price of $$100?$

Use the replicating$-$portfolio method to value this call.

In a risk$-$neutral world, what is the probability that Ragwort stock will rise in price?

Use the risk$-$neutral method to check your valuation of the Ragwort option.

If someone told you that, in reality, there is a $60\%$ chance that Ragwort$$s stock price will rise to $$200,$ would you change your view about the value of the option? Explain.