Overview Determine how much money you need to spend on college and college related expenses for the rest of your college career. You can use the Fermi Estimating mindset to help you get started estimating numbers when you have little or no data. More important than the number is the logic and reasoning. It helps others understand how you arrived at the estimate, and knowing this, everyone on the team can start to improve upon the hypotheses. 0 Here's how it works. You start by breaking down your challenge into smaller parts (Chunking) so you can get to a formula. Estimate a number for each input and then multiply, divide, add, and subtract to get an estimate for the whole challenge. The numbers that you estimate will always be wrong but, they useful as they represent the competency of your logic. When numbers are used the process becomes a system of patterns (formulas) that represent the logic of your deductive thinking to craft a hypothesis of an innovation's value. And because you documented the logic and assumptions behind each number, you can begin the work of improving each input as the idea is prototyped and commercialized. 0 It's your logic. You can use the Fermi Estimating mindset to help you get started estimating numbers when you have little or no data. More important than the number is the logic and reasoning behind it. Your logic helps others understand how you arrived at the estimate, and knowing this, you and those you are working with can start to improve upon the estimate. Part 1: Start by deconstructing the challenge to create a Formula using words only: Example: (Variable A* Variable B) + (Variable C - Variable D) Before you begin, break your challenge into categories. Align these categories in a sequential order with the rst category to establish the platform for the logic pattern. For example... you have two (or three) seasons in a school year called semesters. This factor based on time can set the pattern. Example of a Category Formula: Cost of Classes Average cost per class per semester 0 # of credit hours in a semester / 3 hours per class = # of classes per semester 0 cost per academic year] 2 semesters = cost of tuition per semester 0 # of classes per semester I cost per semester = cost per class per semester 0 cost per class per semester X # of classes per semester X 2 semesters a year = Total cost of # of classes per year X remaining semesters of school = total cost of classes to graduate The formula you use can vary and the summation will never be correct. But, you will be close. The key is to transform your idea into a mathematical logic model. This model can be used as a benchmark to guide progress and expectations as more details become clear. Part 2: Estimate each Variable with a lower and upper estimates. Then do the math. You can use the Free Form Math Game Plan application if you want help. You can find it on the Tools Page or search or the app using the SEARCH window at the top of the portal. Otherwise, simply crunch the numbers in each column. Depending on how you construct your the assumption for your estimates, a quick way to factor Low and High is: Low is X 80% and high is X 120% Special Note: You don't have to ll in all the rows below. But, you do have to have more than 5 categories. Document the formula for your thought Variable Name Low Estimate High Estimate process Number (From Your Multiple your Most Likely Multiple your Instructor Advice includin the Formula) total by 800/0 total by 1200/0 _ g basns/ rationale for each number \f\fWhat could you do to save 15% on the overall costs? Please document how you would plan to save, be specific. Describe the logic of why you chose this topic and the way it would work