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PARAMETERS R&D cost low high $500,000.00 $700,000.00 variable cost mean stdev $0.25 $0.05 $1.20 Selling price life of product min max 3 7 discount
PARAMETERS R&D cost low high $500,000.00 $700,000.00 variable cost mean stdev $0.25 $0.05 $1.20 Selling price life of product min max 3 7 discount Sale volumes market condition 10% mean stdev 0.5 1,000,000 150,000 probability High Medium 0.2 700,000 150,000 Low 0.3 400,000 100,000 Your company is analyzing the NPV for a new product. Discount rate is 10% R&D at year 0 cost can be anywhere between 500K and 700K. The life of product can be between 3 and 7 years. Variable cost each year follows a normal distribution with mean $0.25 and standard deviation $0.05. The selling price is $1.2. The sale volume each year when product is alive is normal distributions with mean and standard deviation depending on market condition, which is given in the table below. Compute the average NPV Compute the probability of negative NPV
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