Part 2: Wholesome Foods wants to understand the variations in the sales of the Magic Bowl product, a ready-to-eat breakfast cereal. The sales data from 2011-2013 can be found in Case2b_Cereal.xlsx. Your assignment: Using the data of monthly sales of Magic Bowl (and possibly a time trend, with and without monthly cycles), develop and estimate a model you think makes the most sense to use for forecasting monthly sales of Magic Bowl cereal. Your report should address the following questions: a. How did you arrive at this model? You need to present alternative models and the evidence for model comparison. Attach the screenshots of the relevant JMP output. (20 points) b. Based on the selected model, what is the forecast for the sales of Magic Bowl in January 2014? (5 points) Year Month 2011 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2012 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2013 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec SALES (millions) 11.55822 12.54233 13.80733 13.25119 16.21266 17.66484 16.66684 17.05522 16.22242 18.70414 16.74854 15.77616 17.04059 19.89712 18.55069 18.74983 20.75752 22.70041 25.36866 23.36676 24.17812 22.02483 22.99269 23.41929 23.35579 23.93071 24.44031 23.99847 27.42729 27.79006 29.21556 29.36627 29.32078 28.43557 28.33757 28.54943 Part 2: Wholesome Foods wants to understand the variations in the sales of the Magic Bowl product, a ready-to-eat breakfast cereal. The sales data from 2011-2013 can be found in Case2b_Cereal.xlsx. Your assignment: Using the data of monthly sales of Magic Bowl (and possibly a time trend, with and without monthly cycles), develop and estimate a model you think makes the most sense to use for forecasting monthly sales of Magic Bowl cereal. Your report should address the following questions: a. How did you arrive at this model? You need to present alternative models and the evidence for model comparison. Attach the screenshots of the relevant JMP output. (20 points) b. Based on the selected model, what is the forecast for the sales of Magic Bowl in January 2014? (5 points) Year Month 2011 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2012 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sep 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2013 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec SALES (millions) 11.55822 12.54233 13.80733 13.25119 16.21266 17.66484 16.66684 17.05522 16.22242 18.70414 16.74854 15.77616 17.04059 19.89712 18.55069 18.74983 20.75752 22.70041 25.36866 23.36676 24.17812 22.02483 22.99269 23.41929 23.35579 23.93071 24.44031 23.99847 27.42729 27.79006 29.21556 29.36627 29.32078 28.43557 28.33757 28.54943
