Part 2 With that out of our way, let us see how each of their respective GDP growth rates have trended over the time span between 1970 and 2017. 4. Track the GDP growth rate from 1970 till 2017 of the countries identified in the first three questions. Utilize appropriate graphs for this. You may want to create three separate graphs- one each for the largest, medium sized and smallest. What do the graphs indicate? Do you see over- and under-performing countries? (3 points) 5. Using time-series regression analysis, calculate the trend of the GDP growth rates for each country for the period between 2008 and 2017. Which countries exhibit positive and negative trends? Create a table that summarizes your findings (3 points). Part 3 If we base our decision solely on a positive trend in growth rates, we overlook the risk associated with the decision. We need to quantify the potential risk and incorporate it into our decision making. One way of quantifying risk is to calculate the Coefficient of Variation of the GDP growth rates over the 2008-2017 time period. A higher COV indicates a wider standardized variation and potentially higher risk. 6. Calculate the COV for each of the countries in the sub-set. Summarize your findings in a table. (3 points) Part 4 Create a chart on which you plot the growth rate trend on the Y-axis and the COV on the X-axis for all the countries in the subset. Using this graph, identify the top three countries that would you plan to invest in and explain why? (3 points) Part 5 For the three countries that you have chosen to invest in, utilize exponential smoothing with alphas equal to 0.1, 0.3, 0.6 to calculate the forecast for 2018. Start forecasting from 2008. Which value of alpha yields the lowest forecast error (use MAPE)? (3 points) Please use the appropriate charts and tables to substantiate your findings and analysis in for each of the questions- this is a part of the grade. If you plan to use information from external sources to augment your analysis, you will receive extra credit- however, these need to be appropriately cited and referenced using APA style. The following website provides more Tuvalu Montserrat Nauru Kiribati Marshall Islands Palau 2008 30,005,404 57,403, 704 41,545,798 141,045,081 155, 265,593 198,024,359 225,453,826 354,726,693 263,200,000 188,021, 169 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 26,925,702 31,395,699 38,252,594 37,201,177 37,107,940 36,782,746 35,038,170 39,545,504 43,912,497 59,403,704 55,511,111 63,700,000 63,440,741 59,485, 185 58,955,556 61,381,481 62,837,037 59,666,667 54,243,181 59,277,212 87,909,825 120,537,585 118, 178,364 132,826,895 104,353,153 118,168,204 128,743,386 132,421,060 156, 125,960 181,712,053 190, 122,806 185, 105,678 178,875,260 169, 141,776 181,549,598 187,282, 142 154,871,669 168,313,431 175,544,691 186,607,377 192,305,672 185, 153,948 181,462,050 197,816,344 207,749,821 183,369,297 183,498,813 193, 143,922 211,103,344 223,388,391 243, 146,969 278,824,781 296,749,781 287,564,063 215,568,521 240,788,433 271,970,637 299,381,020 289,201,533 319,453,749 302, 173,463 309,858,493 345,608,995 282,610,391 267,731,727 290,590,033 280, 111,277 281,801,879 311,309,611 330,534,978 320,304,714 284,214,339 280,300,000 296,900,000 311,300,000 327,300,000 317,200,000 319,300,000 316,500,000 332,300,000 366,700,000 187,821,049 197,454,025 233,213,510 252,560,581 302,925,497 348,899,565 318,257,372 347,547,473 378,598,871 Cook Islands Anguilla Micronesia (FS of) Sao Tome and Principe Part 2 With that out of our way, let us see how each of their respective GDP growth rates have trended over the time span between 1970 and 2017. 4. Track the GDP growth rate from 1970 till 2017 of the countries identified in the first three questions. Utilize appropriate graphs for this. You may want to create three separate graphs- one each for the largest, medium sized and smallest. What do the graphs indicate? Do you see over- and under-performing countries? (3 points) 5. Using time-series regression analysis, calculate the trend of the GDP growth rates for each country for the period between 2008 and 2017. Which countries exhibit positive and negative trends? Create a table that summarizes your findings (3 points). Part 3 If we base our decision solely on a positive trend in growth rates, we overlook the risk associated with the decision. We need to quantify the potential risk and incorporate it into our decision making. One way of quantifying risk is to calculate the Coefficient of Variation of the GDP growth rates over the 2008-2017 time period. A higher COV indicates a wider standardized variation and potentially higher risk. 6. Calculate the COV for each of the countries in the sub-set. Summarize your findings in a table. (3 points) Part 4 Create a chart on which you plot the growth rate trend on the Y-axis and the COV on the X-axis for all the countries in the subset. Using this graph, identify the top three countries that would you plan to invest in and explain why? (3 points) Part 5 For the three countries that you have chosen to invest in, utilize exponential smoothing with alphas equal to 0.1, 0.3, 0.6 to calculate the forecast for 2018. Start forecasting from 2008. Which value of alpha yields the lowest forecast error (use MAPE)? (3 points) Please use the appropriate charts and tables to substantiate your findings and analysis in for each of the questions- this is a part of the grade. If you plan to use information from external sources to augment your analysis, you will receive extra credit- however, these need to be appropriately cited and referenced using APA style. The following website provides more Tuvalu Montserrat Nauru Kiribati Marshall Islands Palau 2008 30,005,404 57,403, 704 41,545,798 141,045,081 155, 265,593 198,024,359 225,453,826 354,726,693 263,200,000 188,021, 169 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 26,925,702 31,395,699 38,252,594 37,201,177 37,107,940 36,782,746 35,038,170 39,545,504 43,912,497 59,403,704 55,511,111 63,700,000 63,440,741 59,485, 185 58,955,556 61,381,481 62,837,037 59,666,667 54,243,181 59,277,212 87,909,825 120,537,585 118, 178,364 132,826,895 104,353,153 118,168,204 128,743,386 132,421,060 156, 125,960 181,712,053 190, 122,806 185, 105,678 178,875,260 169, 141,776 181,549,598 187,282, 142 154,871,669 168,313,431 175,544,691 186,607,377 192,305,672 185, 153,948 181,462,050 197,816,344 207,749,821 183,369,297 183,498,813 193, 143,922 211,103,344 223,388,391 243, 146,969 278,824,781 296,749,781 287,564,063 215,568,521 240,788,433 271,970,637 299,381,020 289,201,533 319,453,749 302, 173,463 309,858,493 345,608,995 282,610,391 267,731,727 290,590,033 280, 111,277 281,801,879 311,309,611 330,534,978 320,304,714 284,214,339 280,300,000 296,900,000 311,300,000 327,300,000 317,200,000 319,300,000 316,500,000 332,300,000 366,700,000 187,821,049 197,454,025 233,213,510 252,560,581 302,925,497 348,899,565 318,257,372 347,547,473 378,598,871 Cook Islands Anguilla Micronesia (FS of) Sao Tome and Principe