Part 2-Problem (40 points): The worksheet Problem DATA' contains monthly turkey prices. Estimate one time series model that contains trend, seasonality, and an AB(1[1]) component. Name the model output worksheet 'PROBLEM MODEL'. Use that estimated model to do out of sample forecasting on the data stored in the worksheet 'PROBLEM OUT OF SAMPLE". Calculate the RMSFE and MSFE of your out of sample forecasts A B C D 4 5 an 00 9 1 YEAR Month 2 1990 JAN 3 1990 FEB 4 1990 MAR 5 1990 APR 6 1990 MAY 7 1990 JUN 8 1990 JUL 9 1990 AUG 10 1990 SEP 11 1990 OCT 12 1990 NOV 13 1990 DEC 14 1991 JAN 15 1991 FEB 16 1991 MAR 17 1991 APR 18 1991 MAY 19 1991 JUN 20 1991 JUL 21 1991 AUG 22 1991 SEP 23 1991 OCT 24 1991 NOV 25 1991 DEC 26 1992 JAN 27 1992 FEB 1992 MAR 29 1992 APR 30 1997 MAY Price ($/cwt) 11.99055 12.2187 13.00455 13.6383 15.5142 15.28605 15.4128 14.17065 13.76505 14.3988 12.7257 12.1173 12.675 13.2327 13.05525 12.90315 13.71435 13.86645 13.7397 12.9792 11.7624 11.0526 9.633 9.7851 9.3288 10.1907 9.91185 10.3935 28 Year Month 2013 JAN 2013 FEB 2013 MAR 2013 APR 2013 MAY 2013 JUN 2013 JUL 2013 AUG 2013 SEP 2013 OCT 2013 NOV 2013 DEC p(t) 16.1733 16.35075 15.0072 15.6663 17.3901 18.8604 19.2153 18.8097 17.92245 17.36475 16.1226 15.59025 MSFE RMSFE