Part 5. Oil Price Forecasting - CLO 1 Consider the following world events that affected oil prices between 2002 and 2003: 2002 08 The US Environmental Protection Agency requires diesel trucks and buses to reduce emissions by 90% by 2007 and Mexico limits its crude oil exports 09 OPEC, meeting in Osaka, Japan, decides to keep current ofl production and prices steady 10 N.A. 11 The US SPR increases and the UN adopts Resolution 1441 12 A strike in Venezuela and US Secretary of State Colin Powell declares that the Iraq fails to meet the UN resolution's requirement 01 The strike in Venezuela continues; fears of a conflict in Iraq; a cold weather and low oil stock levels in the US 02 Iranian large natural gas field is on-line; BP invests 86.75 billion in Russia by creating a new joint venture company with TNK; Exxon Mobil begins construetion of the $3 billion kizombab offshore development project in Angolan waters 03 Venezuelan oil production in the eastern region begins to come back on-line; an OPEC meeting decides to maintain oil production quotas, but most analysts believe OPEC-10's (excluding Iraq) actual production is higher than the quota amount; military action in Iraq commences (3.19), but Kuwait oil production has little effect due to emergency planis to protect its workers and facilities 04 Coalition forces control 80% - 90% of lraq's southern oilfield production; Royal Dutch Shell restarts production and develops an offshore oilfield in southern Iran; Brazil discover its largest natural gas field 05 The UN lifts economic sunctions that have been in place in Iraq since 1990; Yukos of Russia signs a $150 billion agreement with the China National Petroleum Company 06 An OPEC meeting decides to keep OPEC crude oil production quotas unchanged for its 10 members; Iraq exports oil for the first time since Mar, 20. 07 The European parliament votes to cap European industry's carbon dioxide output; Hurricane Claudette hits the Texas coast about 80 miles southwest of Houston; OPEC's oil ministers decide to keep their oil production quotas unchanged 08 Iraq's oil production is close to 1 million barrels per day; Russia approves a 813 billion merger between Yukos and Sibneft, creating "Yukos Sibneft" 09 The UN security council lifts 11-year-old sanctions against Libya; OPEC members agree to cut the output ceiling for the 10 members by 900,000 barrels per day 10 Yukos and Sibneft complete their merger; Bolivian protests take place due to the oil export proposal with the US 1. Identify periods with similar patterns and class them into 6 different pattern groups such as (Geopolitcal, Weather, etc.) 2. Which ones could exhibit long term effect on oil prices? 3. Use your own judgement to forecast oil prices for 2004-2005. Explain your reasoning- Part 5. Oil Price Forecasting - CLO 1 Consider the following world events that affected oil prices between 2002 and 2003: 2002 08 The US Environmental Protection Agency requires diesel trucks and buses to reduce emissions by 90% by 2007 and Mexico limits its crude oil exports 09 OPEC, meeting in Osaka, Japan, decides to keep current ofl production and prices steady 10 N.A. 11 The US SPR increases and the UN adopts Resolution 1441 12 A strike in Venezuela and US Secretary of State Colin Powell declares that the Iraq fails to meet the UN resolution's requirement 01 The strike in Venezuela continues; fears of a conflict in Iraq; a cold weather and low oil stock levels in the US 02 Iranian large natural gas field is on-line; BP invests 86.75 billion in Russia by creating a new joint venture company with TNK; Exxon Mobil begins construetion of the $3 billion kizombab offshore development project in Angolan waters 03 Venezuelan oil production in the eastern region begins to come back on-line; an OPEC meeting decides to maintain oil production quotas, but most analysts believe OPEC-10's (excluding Iraq) actual production is higher than the quota amount; military action in Iraq commences (3.19), but Kuwait oil production has little effect due to emergency planis to protect its workers and facilities 04 Coalition forces control 80% - 90% of lraq's southern oilfield production; Royal Dutch Shell restarts production and develops an offshore oilfield in southern Iran; Brazil discover its largest natural gas field 05 The UN lifts economic sunctions that have been in place in Iraq since 1990; Yukos of Russia signs a $150 billion agreement with the China National Petroleum Company 06 An OPEC meeting decides to keep OPEC crude oil production quotas unchanged for its 10 members; Iraq exports oil for the first time since Mar, 20. 07 The European parliament votes to cap European industry's carbon dioxide output; Hurricane Claudette hits the Texas coast about 80 miles southwest of Houston; OPEC's oil ministers decide to keep their oil production quotas unchanged 08 Iraq's oil production is close to 1 million barrels per day; Russia approves a 813 billion merger between Yukos and Sibneft, creating "Yukos Sibneft" 09 The UN security council lifts 11-year-old sanctions against Libya; OPEC members agree to cut the output ceiling for the 10 members by 900,000 barrels per day 10 Yukos and Sibneft complete their merger; Bolivian protests take place due to the oil export proposal with the US 1. Identify periods with similar patterns and class them into 6 different pattern groups such as (Geopolitcal, Weather, etc.) 2. Which ones could exhibit long term effect on oil prices? 3. Use your own judgement to forecast oil prices for 2004-2005. Explain your reasoning