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Part B Before making a final decision on the production plan to adopt, the bakery's manager decides to contact Professor Leung in the Math Department
Part B Before making a final decision on the production plan to adopt, the bakery's manager decides to contact Professor Leung in the Math Department to conduct a market research survey. The results of the survey will indicate either favourable or unfavourable market conditions for premium breads. In the past, when there was low demand, Professor Leung's predictions were favourable 27% of the time. The professor's predictions have also been unfavourable given medium demand 54% of the time, and favourable given high demand 66% of the time. Assume prior probabilities of 0.5 and 0.4 for low and high demand respectively. a. Calculate posterior (revised) probabilities and enter them in the table below. Round answers to 3 decimal places; do not round intermediate results. Note : The first cell of the table represents P(Low | Favourable) The last cell of the table represents P(High | Unfavourable) Low Medium High Favourable 0.033 0.344 0.622 Unfavourable 0.212 X 0.493 0.295 X b. Determine the marginal probabilities of favourable and unfavourable predictions. P(Favourable) = 0.387 X P(Unfavourable) = 0.613
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