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Part C and D only - having difficulty creating the tree Problem 4. Fletcher, Cooper, and Wainwright Once upon a time in the Old West,

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Part C and D only - having difficulty creating the tree

Problem 4. Fletcher, Cooper, and Wainwright Once upon a time in the Old West, Fletcher, Cooper, and Wainwright (the firm) was deciding whether to make arrows, barrels, or Conestoga wagons. The firm understood that demand for products would vary depending on U.S. government policies concerning the development of travel routes to California. If land routes were chosen and treaties with Native Americans could not be negotiated, the demand for arrows would be great. Success in those negotiations would favor demand for Conestoga wagons. If the water route was chosen, the success of negotiations would be irrelevant. Instead, many barrels would be needed to contain goods during the long sea voyage around Cape Horn. Although the firm was expert at forecasting the effect of policy on its business, it could not estimate the probability of the U.S. government favoring one policy over another. Based on the firm's forecasted demand, which alternative is best, according to (a) Maximin (b) Maximax Demand Policy Land, no treaty Land, with treaty Sea Arrows Barrels Conestoga Wagons 9,000,000 5,000,000 2,500,000 300,000 200,000 500,000 5,000 50,000 3,000 Product Price and Cost Fixed Costs Unit Variable Cost S Unit Price Barrels Conestoga Wagons $ 60,000 S 80,000 $ 100,000 50 0.15 S 3.00 $ Next, assume that Fletcher, Cooper, and Wainwright has contributed to the reelection campaign and legal defense fund for the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. In return, the firm leams that the probability of choosing the sea route is 0.2, the probability of developing the land route and successful treaty negotiations is 0.3, and the probability of developing the land route and unsuccessful negotiations is 0.5 (c) Draw a decision tree to analyze the problem. Calculate the expected monetary value of each product. (d) The chairman informs Fletcher, Cooper and Wainwright that a more accurate forecast of events is available "for a price." What is the value of perfect information

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