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Philadelphia Development Corporation (PDC) purchased land that will be the site for the new luxury condominium complex. The location provides a spectacular view of Philadelphia
Philadelphia Development Corporation (PDC) purchased land that will be the site for the new luxury condominium complex. The location provides a spectacular view of Philadelphia Downtown. PDC has four options: L build a small complex with 30 condominiums IL build a medium complex with 60 condominiums IIL build a large complex with 90 condominiums IV. do not build anything The final profit depends on how many condominiums PDC can sell, which in turn depends on the underlying 'market' for condominiums, PDC estimates that the market for condominiums can be either Strong, Medium, or Weak. Depending on the market, the profit to PDC (in millions of $) for each of the three decisions is noted below. Note that doing nothing is an option, which fetches a profit of $0. Market Potential = Strong Medium Weak Small Complex 15 -5 Medium Complex 20 -10 Large Complex 30 6 -20 For instance, suppose PDC decides to construct a Small Complex. Then, its payoff (in millions of $) will be: 15 if the market turns out to be Strong, 9 if the market turns out to be Medium, and a loss of 5 million dollars if the market turns out to be Weak. PDC assigns a prior probability of 30% that the market will be Strong, 20% that the market will be Medium, and 50% that the market will be Weak. For all questions below, assume that PDC maximizes expected profit. Decision node Chance node (market potential) Do not Build Strong Small complex Medium Weak Swong Medium complex Medium Weak Strong Large complex Medium Weak.4. Suppose PDC decides to construct a Medium condominium. What is the probability that PDC does not lose money, i.e., accrues positive profit? 0% 20% 30% 50% None of the above B. What is the expected profit of building a large complex of condominiums in millions of dollars? [it]. 0.2 0. 3 0.4 0. 5 C. What is the expected value of the optimal decision for P00? 0 1.2 2.4 3. B 4.0 D. What is the value of perfect information for PDC? l 3 5 T 9
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