Question
Phord is considering entering the self driving car market with their T1 model car. Forecasts show that the T1 has a negative NPV of $36.52
Phord is considering entering the self driving car market with their T1 model car.
Forecasts show that the T1 has a negative NPV of $36.52 million. The T1's cash flows are shown in the table below. It can't meet the 18% hurdle rate.
The T1 gives not only its own cash flows, but also a call option to go on with version T2 of the self-driving car.
Assume:
1.) The decision to invest in the T2 must be made after 4 years, in 2019.
2.) The investment required for T2 is $990 million
3.) The present value of cash inflows for version T2 is $670 million (amount theyll get in the future)
4.) The future value of version T2's cash flows is highly uncertain, with a standard deviation of 40% per year.
Cash flows for Model T1 (in millions) | ||||||
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
After tax cash flows | -150 | 120 | 140 | 300 | 700 | 0 |
Required Capital Investment | -400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Increase in Working Capital | -350 | -80 | -50 | 100 | 150 | 175 |
Net cash flows | -900 | 40 | 90 | 400 | 850 | 175 |
| ||||||
NPV @ 18% = -$36.52 million |
QUESTION:
Calculate:
a) the value of the option to invest in version T2 of the self-driving car; and
b) the strategic (expanded) NPV of the T1.
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