Please answer the questions below in reference to the article attached:
- What is meant by "analysts' independence"? When and how might analysts' independence be compromised? What pressures do analysts face that might reduce their independence? Is maintaining a "buy" recommendation on a stock after its price has fallen evidence that an analysts' independence is compromised? Do analysts who currently recommend investing in tech stocks and the broader stock market lack independence?
- What exactly does Peter Houghton's memo say? Does the memo say that analysts should compromise their independence? How does the memo raise questions about analysts' independence? Does it make any difference whether "analysts aren't pressured to change recommendations, but only to make factual changes"?
- What are the "buy side" and "sell side"? Why might the "sell side" be unwilling to make "sell" recommendations on stocks? If the "buy side" has its own analysts, would the "buy side" ever look at "sell side" analysts' reports?
- Why might "sell side" companies extend the "normal, common courtesy" of warning firms before they downgrade their stocks? Would you consider this good business practice? What is Mr. Barkocy's "buy side" criticism of such practices? Why might the "sell side" ignore such criticism?
- Former SEC chairman, Arthur Levitt, criticized analysts in January this year in a speech in Philadelphia. Read the speech "The Future for America?s Investors". Levitt comments that a "sell" recommendation from an analyst is as common as a Philly steak sandwich without the cheese. If analysts don't issue "sell" recommendations, how do they advise investors that they should sell certain stocks?
Forecasting This section covers a forward-looking analysis. This is contrary to regular financial statements, which are financial summaries of past performance. A forecast financial statement is based on anticipated future events. When performing a forecasting analysis several parties are interested. Within the company, it is used to assist in its planning activities, both short-term and long-term, and therefore generate actions targeting the expected results. Also, it is used to communicate to investors the future performance of the company, so they can have a bigger picture of their investments. Furthermore, banks are also interested, to assess risks for loan repayments. This strategic planning covers 5 years into the future. A five-year pro forma would provide a fuller view into how Comcast might fare under various assumed conditions. It is worth highlighting that macroeconomic factors could affect Comcast, and these factors cannot be forecast with high degree of certainty. However, having an idea of future performance would allow the company to be prepared to respond to future needs for resource allocation. 1 Sales The forecast of future sales is the most important step since many other items have a constant relationship to sales. Numbers from the previous years are investigated to determine the historical sales trend. Sales data of Comcast and its competitors, AT&T and Windstream, are shown below: 2 1 http://www.infoentrepreneurs.org/en/guides/forecast-and-plan-your-sales/ 2 https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/index.cfm The chart suggests that Comcast has a progressive increase in sales over the years. This growth is primarily attributed to new acquisitions, which has increased by $44,965,000,000, an average growth of 10.48%, over 10 years. Available cash in the previous year, and the profit margin, suggest the existence of sufficient funds for continued growth and support the increase of future sales. Compared with the closest competitors, we can see that AT&T manages more high sales volume, while Windstream's growth is fairly stable but below Comcast's. Percentage of Sales growth The above charts show a comparison of the percentage of growth in sales compared to the previous year between the three companies. Comcast's annual percentage change in sales growth varies among years with a peak in 2011, where sales increased from $37,937,000,000 to 55,842,000,000. AT&T had an important increase in sales in 2007, thereafter displaying a stable growth rate. In 2010 and 2012 Windstream presents an increased in its growth rate, while in other periods, compared to the previous year, the current period presents a decreased in sales, where the growth rate is shown as a negative value. Comparing the three companies, AT&T has an average increased in sales, from 2005 to 2014 of 15.92%, while Comcast's and Windstream's sales figures are 14.03% and 8.95%, respectively. This gives us a perspective of evolution in sales when comparing the three companies. Based on the assumption of continued growth over the next 5 years, we can forecast 2016-2020 sales, while 2015 data is still unavailable for this time of the year. Comcast's sales is forecasted at 4.8%, AT&T's at 5.5%, and Windstream's at 3% while having a constant relation with the averages, but adjusting for economic conditions for the next years, and taking into account the growth of acquisitions. Comcast projects an increase in sales from $68,775,000,000 to $86,943,478,600. AT&T's forecast jumps from $132,447,000,000 to $173,102,000,000 while Windstream's increases from $5,829,500,000 to $6,988,216,757. See chart below. Income Income is based on previous data's projected sales for 5 years. To get a broader picture, we will also project the future bottom line for 5 years. A number of assumptions of the components of the Income Statement, in relation to sales, are made; Cost of Goods Sold, Selling, General, & Admin Expenses, Depreciation, Depletion, & Amortization, Non-Operating Income/Expense, and Special Items.3 From the above chart and graph, we can observe that all deductible costs from sales have a pattern over the years. We will further examine the growth from year to year, and summarize with an average, in order to have a broader perspective when comparing Comcast and its competitors. This evaluation will give us a sense of how Comcast has grown over the years, compared to the growth of AT&T and Windstream, while evaluating Comcast's sales, expenses and net income. 3 https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/index.cfm The above chart shows the growth rates of sales, expenses, and net income over the years. We can see that on average, Comcast's sales has grown an average of 14.03% and Cost of Goods Sold account for 49.56 % of sales. From 2011 through 2014 Selling, General & Administrative Expenses were reduced to zero, so for this reason we keep the same assumptions for forecasting purposes, but for comparison we use an average of the ten years of 14.22%. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization is 16.51%; Interest Expense equals 5.89%; Non-Operating Income/Expense is 0.9%. Special Items totals 0.02%; Minority Interest 0.5%; and Income Tax is 31% of Pre-tax income. Profit Margin is 8.9%. Based on these averages we compare Comcast with its closest competitors. Worth mentioning are the following highlights: AT&T and Comcast have similar percentage growth of sales in a period of ten years. Comcast has the highest Cost of Goods Sold. Though Comcast and AT&T have higher sales and more percentage of growth sales, Windstream has the highest profit margin in relation to its sales. AT&T has the highest volume of sales, but not the highest profit margin. Net Income analysis From the dollar amount of Net Income for Comcast and its competitors, based on the table and graph above, we know that Comcast has a stable net income increase over the last 10year period, thus growing from $928,000,000 to $8,380,000,000 during this period. Windstream shows decreasing Net Income since 2009 and AT&T had two periods where its net income dropped dramatically in 2011 and 2014. To get an idea of the market positioning, we reviewed Comcast's sales for a ten-year period and compared it with its closest competitors. We forecasted their sales, and studied net income and profit margin from its financial statements. Although certain expenses have small fluctuations over the years, for the purposes of forecasting, we will take the proportions of each expense in relation to Sales of the last year, and project net income for the next 5 years. Since making an average of ratios over the last 10 years gives us a vision of Comcast's position through the years, for this forecast, we considered it appropriate to use the last year as a basis because it is more adequate for the foreseeable future. See chart and graph below: Sales would increase from $72,076,000,000 to $86,943,000,000 and Net Income would increase from $8,793,300,000 to $10,751,400,000. This is an increase in EPS from $3.4 to $4.2. Balance Sheet. Assets should support forecast sales and revenues. If Comcast requires additional assets, we will evaluate the resources to finance this acquisition. 4This section evaluates if Comcast is able to source this growth internally or by issuing short-term investments, debt, stocks, or taking external loans. The graph below shows Assets, Liability and Equity from 2005 to 2014 and its 5year forecast. 4 http://smallbusiness.chron.com/creating-projected-balance-sheet-40737.html Working Capital and Plan, Property and Equipment are key variables that we explored. Our main question is whether Comcast will generate enough cash to support the growth of PPE and cover Working Capital. We observed that Comcast from 10 years, they have 8 years negative working capital. 5 This exists when the drivers of current assets are less than the drivers in the current liabilities. Many growing companies have successfully used of this practice. In this period, Working Capital increased totals -$837.81M. The advantage of a negative working capital is that it releases tied-up cash and increases the cash flow. As the firm becomes larger, working capital also increases. If the company does not pay in the current year, they are using supplier credit as a source of capital. The use of this strategy for growth has a downside in that supplier credit is generally not free. Thus, to use this strategy, this expense should be less than more traditional forms of borrowing. The increase of Plan, Property and Equipment by $21,377.4M, required to support forecast sales, comparing with the amount of net income forecasted, $48,765.5M, is less than the amount that Comcast will generate in this period. Comcast will not have the necessity of external financing sources. Net income is sufficient to cover the increase in Plan, Property, and Equipment. 5 http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100915/can-working-capital-be-negative.asp