Please complete the following questions: 01 Soan Stock Price (12pt) Download "Q1" Excel file from Moodle. Use this template to answer the questions (part 1 to 5) below. Moving averages are often used to identify movements in stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in dollars per share) for Soan for September 22, 1997, through December 8, 1997, are shown below. Week Prices ($) Week Prices ($) 09/22 74.250 11/03 73.000 09/29 75.000 11/10 74.438 10/06 74.063 11/17 73.438 10/13 72.738 11/24 73.500 10/20 72.000 12/01 71.438 10/27 73.375 12/08 72.357 1. 2Pts) Use a 3-week moving average to smooth the time series. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 2. 3Pts) Use a 3-week weighted moving average to smooth the time series. Use a weight of .45 for the most recent period, .4 for the next period back, and .15 for the third period back. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 3. 3Pts) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of = .4 to smooth the time series. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 4. 2Pts) Which of the three method do you prefer? (Tips: calculate and compare absolute error, squared error, and absolute percentage error). 5. 2Pts) Include a time series plot showing the actual and forecast prices. Change the title of the chart to ("Actual and Forecast Prices ($) for Soan Vs Weeks") Label the X and Y axis Change the legend from Series 1 and Series 2 to read Actual and Forecast 02 - Revenue Data (10pt) Download "Q2" Excel file from Moodle. Use this template to answer the questions (part 1 to 5) below. The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 14 months: Month Revenue 1 147 2 177 3 162 4 147 5 132 6 162 7 187 8 182 9 142 10 122 11 142 12 152 13 175 14 164 1. 2Pts) Use a 3-month moving average to smooth the time series. Forecast the Revenue for the month 14. 2. 3Pts) Use a 3-month weighted moving average to smooth the time series. Use a weight of .4 for the most recent period, .35 for the next period back, and .25 for the third period back. Forecast the Revenue for the month 15. 3. 3Pts) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of a = .35 to smooth the time series. Forecast the Revenue for the month 15. 4. 2Pts) Which of the three method do you prefer? (Hint: calculate and compare absolute error, squared error, and absolute percentage error). B Revenue Data D E F G H Moving Squared Absolute Average Forecast Absolute Forecast Percentage Error Error Month Revenue Forecast Error Error 123456N 147 177 162 147 132 162 7 187 8 182 9 142 10 122 11 142 12 152 13 175 14 164 15 MFE MAE MSE MAPE Q2a_Moving Average Q2b_Weighted Moving Average Q2c_Exponential Smoothing Soan Stock Prices Moving Squared Absolute Average Forecast Absolute Week Prices ($) Forecast Error Error Forecast Error Percentage Error 22-Sep 74.250 29-Sep 75.000 06-Oct 74.063 13-Oct 72.938 20-Oct 72.000 27-Oct 73.375 03-Nov 73.000 2 10-Nov 74.438 3 17-Nov 73.438 24-Nov 73.500 5 01-Dec 71.438 5 08-Dec 72.357 7 15-Dec 3. 9 , , B 1 , 5 7 B 9 B 1 - MFE MAE MSE MAPE Q1a_Moving Average Q1b_Weighted Moving Average Q1c_Exponential Smoothing 2 Weighted Moving Squared Absolute 3 Average Forecast Absolute Forecast Percentage Prices Week Forecast 4 ($) Error Error Error Error 5 22-Sep 74.250 6 29-Sep 75.000 7 06-Oct 74.063 8 13-Oct 72.938 9 20-Oct 72.000 10 27-Oct 73.375 1 03-Nov 73.000 12 10-Nov 74.438 13 17-Nov 73.438 4 24-Nov 73.500 5 01-Dec 71.438 _6 08-Dec 72.357 .7 15-Dec 890123456 20 Weight 1 0.15 21 Weight 2 0.40 22 Weight 3 0.45 MFE MAE MSE MAPE 2 3 1 Soan Stock Prices Exponential Squared Absolute Smoothing Forecast Absolute Forecast Percentage Week 4 Prices ($) Forecast Error Error Error Error 5 22-Sep 74.250 6 29-Sep 75.000 7 06-Oct 74.063 8 13-Oct 72.938 9 20-Oct 72.000 10 27-Oct 73.375 11 03-Nov 73.000 12 10-Nov 74.438 13 17-Nov 73.438 14 24-Nov 73.500 15 01-Dec 71.438 16 08-Dec 72.357 17 15-Dec 18 19 20 Alpha 0.40 21 22 23 24 MFE MAE MSE MAPE