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Please do ALL THREE PARTS of this ONE LARGE QUESTION. Thank you so much in advance! Bayes Theorem/Bayesian Networks (20 points) 2. a) Draw the

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Please do ALL THREE PARTS of this ONE LARGE QUESTION. Thank you so much in advance!

Bayes Theorem/Bayesian Networks (20 points) 2. a) Draw the Bayesian network that represents P() | A) P( MA) PA | B, E) P(B) P(E) (points) b) You go to see a doctor for general checkup. The doctor selects you at random to have a blood test for swine flu, which for the purposes of this exercise we will say is currently suspected to affect 1 in 10,000 people in USA. The test is 99% accurate, in the sense that the probability of a false positive is 1%. The probability of a false negative is zero. You test positive. What is the new probability that you have swine flu? (10 points) c) Now imagine that you went to a friend's wedding in Country-X recently, and (for the purposes of this exercise) it is known that 1 in 200 people who visited Country-X recently come back with swine flu. Given the same test result as above, what should your revised estimate be for the probability you have the disease? (5 points)

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