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Please do ALL THREE PARTS of this ONE LARGE QUESTION. Thank you so much in advance! Bayes Theorem/Bayesian Networks (20 points) 2. a) Draw the
Please do ALL THREE PARTS of this ONE LARGE QUESTION. Thank you so much in advance!
Bayes Theorem/Bayesian Networks (20 points) 2. a) Draw the Bayesian network that represents P() | A) P( MA) PA | B, E) P(B) P(E) (points) b) You go to see a doctor for general checkup. The doctor selects you at random to have a blood test for swine flu, which for the purposes of this exercise we will say is currently suspected to affect 1 in 10,000 people in USA. The test is 99% accurate, in the sense that the probability of a false positive is 1%. The probability of a false negative is zero. You test positive. What is the new probability that you have swine flu? (10 points) c) Now imagine that you went to a friend's wedding in Country-X recently, and (for the purposes of this exercise) it is known that 1 in 200 people who visited Country-X recently come back with swine flu. Given the same test result as above, what should your revised estimate be for the probability you have the disease? (5 points)Step by Step Solution
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