Please do work by hand to get credit. Can't be done in excel

A company is currently the possible target of a hostile takeover which is expected to become public within two months. The stock price is currently $36. If the hostile takeover happens, the stock price is expected to be $48 at the end of two months. If the hostile takeover does not happen, it is expected to be $28 at the end of this two month time period. The two- month risk-free interest rate is 6% per annum. What is the risk-neutral probability of a positive outcome