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please fill out yellow and blue and answer did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from table) for the
please fill out yellow and blue and answer did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from table) for the three scenarios.
please use scenarios on the right to fill in the excel worksheet. and answer the question in red
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 MCD SBUX CMG Please read the instructions for this exercise in the sheet titled "Instructions" 1. Current data Current stock price $56.00 $75.00 S554.00 A Scenario 1: McDonald's "We are recommending purchasing McDonald's Corp (MCD) and have a one-year price target of $116 (up 21% from its current 896). We believe a recovering Europe and growing emerging markets will allow the company to beat Year 2 consensus EPS of $6.20 (we are at $7.00). Our price target assumes the stock continues to trade at its current 10% premium to the market's 15x multiple (putting MCD at a 16.6x forward multiple)." $5.00 $270 $13.00 B 27.8x 16.6x 15 0x 42.6x C 15.0x D 15. Ox Next 12-month (NTM') consensus EPS forecast for STOCK at present (we call this "Year 1"} Stock's current valuation multiple based on Year 1 EPS (civide row A by now B) Current market multiple on NTM consensus (for the broad market such as S&P 500) Stock's current premium or discount to the market multiple (divide row C by row D minus 1, expressed as a percentage above or below 100%: a discount should be shown as a negative number 10% 85% 184% E 2 Change from consensus EPS between Year 1 and Year 2 NTM consensus in Year 2 (i.e. forecast at begiming of Year 2 for Year 2) Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least che number from the table): Scenarlo 2: Starbucks (SBUX) "We are no longer recommending purchasing SBUX because we believe the consensus expectations for the next fiscal year (Year 2) are 11% too high. Using our EPS forecast for next year (our Year 2 estimate is $2.85, while consensus is at $3.20); we arrive at a base-case scenario price target of $68, which would be a 9%-10% drop from the stock's close of $75. Our proprietary work (survey and interview with industry sources) suggests the company will be unable to pass through the upward labor cost pressure driven by increases in minimum wages. The company will see higher cost inflation or, it it raises prices, slower unit sales, either of which will slow EPS growth. Given the company's current above-average valuation multiple of 28x current consensus Year 1 earnings (which is an 85% premium to the market multiple of 15x), we believe this multiple will contract to 24x (60% premium to the market's 15x multiple) when the market realizes next year's consensus eamings are too high." F -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% Difference between Year 2 and Year 1 consensus EPS forecasts (dvide row Fby row B) 3. Change due to analyst's financial forecast differing from consensus Analyst's NTM EPS forecast in one year (i.e. forecast for Year 2) G Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table): H Difference between analysi's estimate in Year 2 and that of consensus (divida row G by row F) 4. Change due to analyst's future valuation multiple differing from current multiple Analyst's estimate of market multiple at beginning of Year 2 Scenario 3: Chipotle (CMG) "We are recommending the purchase of CMG because we believe the market doesn't appreciate the company's earnings power. Specifically, we believe as the company expands into the Northeast, revenue (and profit) per store should increase faster than its historical trend, based on experience we have witnessed from other chains that expand into the Northeast. Our $720 one-year price target, which is 30% above yesterday's close of $554, is based on the company trading at a 45x P/E ratio (200% premium to the market's 15x multiple) on our $16.00 EPS estimate for next year (Year 2) (compared to consensus at $15.50)." 15.0 15.0x 15.0x J K Analyst's estimate of stock's premium or discount to market multiple at beginning of Year 2 15. Ox 15. Ox 15.Ox L Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table): Valuation multiple used for price target at beginning of Year 2 (multiply row JX (1+row K) Difference between analyst's future multiple and stock's current multiple cvide row L by row C minus 1) 9% -46% -65% M 5. Price target (multiply row G x row L) Change from current price (chvide row N by row A) $0 -100% $0 -100% $0 N - 100% Current Current stock price Next 12 month (NTM consensus EPS forecast for STOCX a. present we call this Year 17 Stock's current valuation to be on Your EPSde row Aby w B) Current and on NTM consensus for the bread markets.ch S&P 50 Stock's current promun adscout to the market multiple divideow Cywirus 1, expressed as a percentage above or below 100% a discourt should be shown as a negative 2. Change from cones EPS between you and you NTM costs in Yer 2f forecast begining of Year 2 for Year 2 Dars between Yew 2 ore Your 1 common EPS forecast fode mw F by row B) 2. Change due to analyst's financial forecast Giffaring from con Aralysts NTM EPS forecast one year forecast for Year 2 Difference between analyss estimate m Year 2nd Phot el correa (Siche G by now F Sorario 1 S2 S3 Please read the instructions for this exercise in the sheet titled "Instructions MCD SAUX CMO scenario MEDI' "We are recommending purchasing McDonald's Corp (MCO) and have a one-year price target of 5116 lip 21 from $98.00 $54,00 A Current 596). We believe a recovering Europe and growing emerging markets will allow the company to beat Year 2 consensus EPS of $6.20 (we are $7.00). Our price target assumes the stock continues to trade at its current 10% premium $5.30 12.70 $13.00 to the marker 1x multple puting MCD ata 166xforward multiple)." 16 428 15 15 15.00 Dd the analyst have a unique cal support with at least one number from the table) Scenario 2: Starbucks (SBUX) 184% We are no longer recommending purchasing SBUX because we believe the consensus expectations for the next fiscal year (Year 2) re 11% too high. Using our EPS forecast for next year (our Year 2 estimates $2.85, whle consensus is 3.20 we arrive at a base-case scenario price target of $68, which would be a 5%-10% drop from the stock's close of $75. Our proprietary work survey and interview with Industry sources suggests the company will be unable to pass through the upward labor cost pressure driven by increases in minimum wages. The company will see higher costination or, if it raises -1000 prices, lower unit aliter of which will slow EPS grown. Given the company's current above-average valuation multiple of 23x current consensus Year 1 earnings (which is an 85% premium to the market multiple of 15 we believe this maliple will contact to 2x 100% premium to 15x multiple) when the market role not year's con sus carings to high Did he analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table Scenario 3: Chipotle (CMG) "We are recommending the purchase of CMG because we believe the market doesn't appreciate the company's earnings power. Specifically, we believe as the company oupards in the Northeast revenue and profit) per store should increase faster than its historical trend, based on perince we have witnessed from other chains that expand into the Northeast Out 15. 15. 15.08 $720 one-yew price target, which is 30% above yesterday's dose of $554, is based on the company trading at a 45x Perato (200%premin to the market's up on our $15.00 EPS estimate for next yeu (Year 2) (compared to consensus at $15.50j." Change due to assure on multiple difering from current multiple Analysis of market is begining of Yor? Aralyst's estate of stock's premium or discount to make multiplient beginning of Year 2 Valuation mutiple used for price target at beging Year 2 muligy row) x ( HKO Diference betwyt's fue multiple and stook's current multiple videow Lby 150 150 150XL Dd the analyst have a unique cal support with at least one number from the table 40% -40% $ S Price target multiply row Grow L) Orange from outer provide row N by TOWA) 50 -100% $0 N -100% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 MCD SBUX CMG Please read the instructions for this exercise in the sheet titled "Instructions" 1. Current data Current stock price $56.00 $75.00 S554.00 A Scenario 1: McDonald's "We are recommending purchasing McDonald's Corp (MCD) and have a one-year price target of $116 (up 21% from its current 896). We believe a recovering Europe and growing emerging markets will allow the company to beat Year 2 consensus EPS of $6.20 (we are at $7.00). Our price target assumes the stock continues to trade at its current 10% premium to the market's 15x multiple (putting MCD at a 16.6x forward multiple)." $5.00 $270 $13.00 B 27.8x 16.6x 15 0x 42.6x C 15.0x D 15. Ox Next 12-month (NTM') consensus EPS forecast for STOCK at present (we call this "Year 1"} Stock's current valuation multiple based on Year 1 EPS (civide row A by now B) Current market multiple on NTM consensus (for the broad market such as S&P 500) Stock's current premium or discount to the market multiple (divide row C by row D minus 1, expressed as a percentage above or below 100%: a discount should be shown as a negative number 10% 85% 184% E 2 Change from consensus EPS between Year 1 and Year 2 NTM consensus in Year 2 (i.e. forecast at begiming of Year 2 for Year 2) Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least che number from the table): Scenarlo 2: Starbucks (SBUX) "We are no longer recommending purchasing SBUX because we believe the consensus expectations for the next fiscal year (Year 2) are 11% too high. Using our EPS forecast for next year (our Year 2 estimate is $2.85, while consensus is at $3.20); we arrive at a base-case scenario price target of $68, which would be a 9%-10% drop from the stock's close of $75. Our proprietary work (survey and interview with industry sources) suggests the company will be unable to pass through the upward labor cost pressure driven by increases in minimum wages. The company will see higher cost inflation or, it it raises prices, slower unit sales, either of which will slow EPS growth. Given the company's current above-average valuation multiple of 28x current consensus Year 1 earnings (which is an 85% premium to the market multiple of 15x), we believe this multiple will contract to 24x (60% premium to the market's 15x multiple) when the market realizes next year's consensus eamings are too high." F -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% Difference between Year 2 and Year 1 consensus EPS forecasts (dvide row Fby row B) 3. Change due to analyst's financial forecast differing from consensus Analyst's NTM EPS forecast in one year (i.e. forecast for Year 2) G Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table): H Difference between analysi's estimate in Year 2 and that of consensus (divida row G by row F) 4. Change due to analyst's future valuation multiple differing from current multiple Analyst's estimate of market multiple at beginning of Year 2 Scenario 3: Chipotle (CMG) "We are recommending the purchase of CMG because we believe the market doesn't appreciate the company's earnings power. Specifically, we believe as the company expands into the Northeast, revenue (and profit) per store should increase faster than its historical trend, based on experience we have witnessed from other chains that expand into the Northeast. Our $720 one-year price target, which is 30% above yesterday's close of $554, is based on the company trading at a 45x P/E ratio (200% premium to the market's 15x multiple) on our $16.00 EPS estimate for next year (Year 2) (compared to consensus at $15.50)." 15.0 15.0x 15.0x J K Analyst's estimate of stock's premium or discount to market multiple at beginning of Year 2 15. Ox 15. Ox 15.Ox L Did the analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table): Valuation multiple used for price target at beginning of Year 2 (multiply row JX (1+row K) Difference between analyst's future multiple and stock's current multiple cvide row L by row C minus 1) 9% -46% -65% M 5. Price target (multiply row G x row L) Change from current price (chvide row N by row A) $0 -100% $0 -100% $0 N - 100% Current Current stock price Next 12 month (NTM consensus EPS forecast for STOCX a. present we call this Year 17 Stock's current valuation to be on Your EPSde row Aby w B) Current and on NTM consensus for the bread markets.ch S&P 50 Stock's current promun adscout to the market multiple divideow Cywirus 1, expressed as a percentage above or below 100% a discourt should be shown as a negative 2. Change from cones EPS between you and you NTM costs in Yer 2f forecast begining of Year 2 for Year 2 Dars between Yew 2 ore Your 1 common EPS forecast fode mw F by row B) 2. Change due to analyst's financial forecast Giffaring from con Aralysts NTM EPS forecast one year forecast for Year 2 Difference between analyss estimate m Year 2nd Phot el correa (Siche G by now F Sorario 1 S2 S3 Please read the instructions for this exercise in the sheet titled "Instructions MCD SAUX CMO scenario MEDI' "We are recommending purchasing McDonald's Corp (MCO) and have a one-year price target of 5116 lip 21 from $98.00 $54,00 A Current 596). We believe a recovering Europe and growing emerging markets will allow the company to beat Year 2 consensus EPS of $6.20 (we are $7.00). Our price target assumes the stock continues to trade at its current 10% premium $5.30 12.70 $13.00 to the marker 1x multple puting MCD ata 166xforward multiple)." 16 428 15 15 15.00 Dd the analyst have a unique cal support with at least one number from the table) Scenario 2: Starbucks (SBUX) 184% We are no longer recommending purchasing SBUX because we believe the consensus expectations for the next fiscal year (Year 2) re 11% too high. Using our EPS forecast for next year (our Year 2 estimates $2.85, whle consensus is 3.20 we arrive at a base-case scenario price target of $68, which would be a 5%-10% drop from the stock's close of $75. Our proprietary work survey and interview with Industry sources suggests the company will be unable to pass through the upward labor cost pressure driven by increases in minimum wages. The company will see higher costination or, if it raises -1000 prices, lower unit aliter of which will slow EPS grown. Given the company's current above-average valuation multiple of 23x current consensus Year 1 earnings (which is an 85% premium to the market multiple of 15 we believe this maliple will contact to 2x 100% premium to 15x multiple) when the market role not year's con sus carings to high Did he analyst have a unique call (support with at least one number from the table Scenario 3: Chipotle (CMG) "We are recommending the purchase of CMG because we believe the market doesn't appreciate the company's earnings power. Specifically, we believe as the company oupards in the Northeast revenue and profit) per store should increase faster than its historical trend, based on perince we have witnessed from other chains that expand into the Northeast Out 15. 15. 15.08 $720 one-yew price target, which is 30% above yesterday's dose of $554, is based on the company trading at a 45x Perato (200%premin to the market's up on our $15.00 EPS estimate for next yeu (Year 2) (compared to consensus at $15.50j." Change due to assure on multiple difering from current multiple Analysis of market is begining of Yor? Aralyst's estate of stock's premium or discount to make multiplient beginning of Year 2 Valuation mutiple used for price target at beging Year 2 muligy row) x ( HKO Diference betwyt's fue multiple and stook's current multiple videow Lby 150 150 150XL Dd the analyst have a unique cal support with at least one number from the table 40% -40% $ S Price target multiply row Grow L) Orange from outer provide row N by TOWA) 50 -100% $0 N -100% Step by Step Solution
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