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New Age Dolls makes the very successful line of Micky and Mimi dolls, which rapidly gained popularity with children and teenagers after only a few years on the market. New Age Dolls produces dolls at two locations: St. Louis (STL) and Boston (BSN), and has been leasing warehouses at both locations. Warehouses are used for storage and for distribution to retail stores. New Age management is not happy with the terms of the leases, which are too expensive. The lease expires at the end of 2021. New Age management has decided to build its own warehouses and has three possible locations: Portland(PT), Atlanta(AT) and Phoenix(PX) (which is entered in cell C22), but New Age would construct warehouses at only two of these locations. To choose these two locations, New Age would like to forecast the net income, debt owed and cash flow for the following three years (2022 to 2024) based on 2021s data. You are asked to help New Age and write Excel formulas in cells C25 to C76 for this forecast by performing a what-if analysis using Microsoft Excel. One major factor that affects the forecast is the expected state of economy over the three years (2022 to 2024) in row 21:

• Flat (F) a steady economic outlook for a year
• Hot (H) a heated-up economic outlook for a year

The expected state of economy can vary from year to year. If the expected state of economy is H for year 2022, F for year 2023, and F for year 2024, then the pattern HFF would be entered in cells C21 to E21.

Assume that there are no input errors (or typing mistakes) in row 21, or c22 cell.

New Age management expects to sell all the dolls they produce in Boston and St. Louis in the three years (2022 to 2024). Production of the two types of dolls will be divided evenly between the two locations. The expected production (and sales) levels are given below:

	Year 2022	Year 2023	Year 2024
Micky St. Louis	500,000 (cell C4)	750,000 (cell D4)	1,000,000 (cell E4)
Mimi St. Louis	750,000 (cell C5)	850,000 (cell D5)	1,000,000 (cell E5)
Micky Boston	500,000 (cell C6)	750,000 (cell D6)	1,000,000 (cell E6)
Mimi Boston	750,000 (cell C7)	850,000 (cell D7)	1,000,000 (cell E7)

To reduce distribution and storage risks (from strikes, natural disasters etc.), management plans to send half of each plants production to each of the two selected warehouse sites. Shipping costs from each plant to each of the three warehouse sites differ. Storage costs at each of the three warehouse sites differ as well. The shipping and storage costs per doll are given below:

(From)Factory	(To)Warehouse	Year 2022	Year 2023	Year 2024
St. Louis	Portland	4.5 (cell C9)	4.95(cell D9)	5.45(cell E9)
St. Louis	Atlanta	5.5 (cell C10)	6.05(cell D10)	6.66(cell E10)
St. Louis	Phoenix	3.5 (cell C11)	3.85(cell D11)	4.24(cell E11)
Boston	Portland	6.0 (cell C12)	6.6 (cell D12)	7.26(cell E12)
Boston	Atlanta	4.5 (cell C13)	4.95(cell D13)	5.45(cell E13)
Boston	Phoenix	5.5 (cell C14)	6.05(cell D14)	6.66(cell E14)

The following constants (rows 15 to 17) for the forecast are described below:

• Tax rate (row 15): The corporate tax rate is expected to increase from 29% for year 2022 to 31% for year 2024.
• Minimum cash needed to start next year (row 16): A New Ages policy is to have at least US$10,000 cash on hand at the end of each year, in order to start next years business. It is assumed that New Ages banker will lend whatever is needed at the end of a year to begin the next year with US$10,000.
• Administrative costs will be fixed at US$1,200,000 each year.

Calculations (rows 25 to 49) are described below:

• Interest rate on debt (row 25): If the expected state of economy is flat (F) in a year, the interest rate paid on debt owed will be 8%, but it will be 10% if the expected stated of economy is heating up in a year.
• Number of dolls shipped from a factory location to a warehouse location (rows 27 to 32): If a warehouse site is not selected, then no dolls are shipped, otherwise a factorys doll production number is divided evenly between the two selected warehouse sites.
• Shipping and warehousing costs for dolls shipped from a factory location to a warehouse location (rows 34 to 39): this is a function of the number of dolls shipped, and the shipping and storage costs per doll. New Age management does not consider cents as cents do not worth much and do not affect costs much.
• Selling prices of Micky and Mimi (rows 40 and 41): In 2021, the selling price for a Micky doll is US$11.25 (cell B40), and for a Mimi doll, it is US$12.25(cell B41), as Mimi is more popular than Micky. If the economy remains steady, then the selling prices for Micky and Mimi are not expected to change from years 2022 to 2024. However, if the economy inflates or heats up, then the selling prices for Micky and Mimi would rise 4% from one year to the next.
• Sales revenue for Micky and Mimi dolls (rows 42 to 43): revenues for each type of dolls would be a function of the number of dolls sold and the selling price of each doll. New Age management does not consider cents as cents do not worth much and do not affect revenue much.
• Production and marketing costs for each doll made at St. Louis and Boston (rows 45 to 46): In 2021, it costs US$5.0 (cell B45) to make and market a St. Louis-made doll and US$5.50 (cell B46) to make and market a Boston-made doll. Production and marketing costs are expected to increase in the following three years whether the economy could be flat or heat up; as New Age management sees no chance of an economic downturn in the following three years. The expected year-to-year percentage increase in production and marketing costs are given below:

	Flat Economy	Economy Heats up
Dolls made in St. Louis	1% per year	15% per year
Dolls made in Boston	2% per year	5% per year

• Total production and marketing costs for all the dolls made at each factory site (rows 48 and 49): these costs are a function of the number of dolls made at that factory site and the production and marketing cost for each doll made at that factory site. New Age management does not consider cents as cents do not worth much and do not affect these costs much.

Income & Cash Flow Statements (rows 53 to 70) are described below:

• Beginning of year cash on hand (row 53): this is the cash at the end of the previous year.
• Revenue sales (row 55): this is the total revenue from sales of all the dolls made at both factory sites.
• Production and marketing costs (row 57): this is the total production and marketing costs for all the dolls made at both factory sites.
• Shipping and warehouse costs (row 58): this is the total shipping and warehouse costs for all the dolls shipped from both factory sites to all three warehouse locations.
• Fixed administrative costs (row 59): this is the constant administrative costs for each year.
• Total costs (row 60): these costs include production, marketing, shipping, warehousing and fixed administrative costs for all the dolls made and sold during that year.
• Pre-interest expense margin (row 61): Before considering tax and interest expense, this is the difference between total revenue and total costs.
• Interest expense (row 62): this is a simple interest based on the years interest rate and the debt owed at the beginning of that year.
• Income before tax (row 63): Before considering tax, but after considering interest expense, this is the difference between pre-interest expense margin, and interest expense.
• Income tax expense (row 64): This is zero if income before tax is zero or less; otherwise, apply the tax rate for the year to the income before tax.
• Net income after tax (row 65): This is the difference between income before tax and income tax expense.
• Net Cash Position (NCP) (row 67): NCP at the end of a year equals the cash beginning of a year, plus the years net income, assuming that there are no receivables or payables.
• Assume that New Ages bankers will lend enough money (row 68) at the end of a year to get to New Ages minimum cash target (see row 16). If the NCP is less than the minimum cash at the end of a year, New Age must borrow enough to reach the minimum cash target. Borrowings increase cash on hand, of course.
• If the NCP is more than the minimum cash and there is outstanding debt from previous year(s), then some or all of the debt should be repaid, but not to take your company below the minimum cash level (row 69).
• Cash at the end of the year equals the NCP, plus any borrowings and less any repayments (row 70).