please help before 5

Merrill Lynch is looking to hire a new financial analyst. They review his financial blog to review his prediction performance over the years. Assume that week, the market could go up, remain the same, or down. The financial analyst only provides predictions whether the market will be good or bad for the next week. During the period of review, the market has gone up 35% of the time, remained the same 40% of the time, and went down 25% of the time. Based on the financial analyst's track record, he has said the market is good 49.7% of the time and bad the rest of the time. From his past record, of the times he said the market will be good, the market actually: went up 40% of the time, remained the same 40% of the time, and went down 20% of the time. Let us suppose the financial analyst says this week, the market will be bad. What is the probability the market will go down