Question
please help Payoff matrix and choosing cutoff values (continuation of 11-32, 11-33, and 11-34). Assume the same information for Keebler-Olson as in Problems 11-31, 11-32,
please help
Payoff matrix and choosing cutoff values (continuation of 11-32, 11-33, and 11-34). Assume the same information for Keebler-Olson as in Problems 11-31, 11-32, 11-33, and 11-34. James plans to invest $100 in each of the 1,000 loans he is examining. If he decides not to invest in a loan, he will invest the $100 in an alternative investment. As James and the data scientist work to improve their model, James mentions that different model predictions are associated with different payoffs for Keebler-Olson. Based on his management accounting experience, James estimates that the average payout for a repay loan of 3 years is $48 dollars. James also estimates that Keebler-Olson loses $60 over 3 years if it purchases a default loan. If Keebler-Olson does not invest in a loan, it places the money in an alternative investment with a payout of $14 over 3 years. James uses the pruned tree to evaluate the total payoff at a cutoff value of 0.25 and a cutoff value of 0.50.
Fill in the payoff matrix below as in Exhibit 11-21.
Payoff Matrix
Predicted Outcomes | |||
---|---|---|---|
Default (Do Not Invest in Loan) | Repay (Invest in Loan) | ||
Actual Outcomes | Default | ||
Repay |
James is deciding whether to use a cutoff of 0.25 or 0.5. Complete the confusion matrices below using the pruned tree for each cutoff as in Exhibits 11-19 and 11-20.
Confusion Matrix (0.50)
Predicted Outcomes | |||
---|---|---|---|
Default (Do Not Invest in Loan) | Repay (Invest in Loan) | ||
Actual Outcomes | Default | ||
Repay |
Confusion Matrix (0.25)
Predicted Outcomes | |||
---|---|---|---|
Default (Do Not Invest in Loan) | Repay (Invest in Loan) | ||
Actual Outcomes | Default | ||
Repay |
What cutoff value should James use? Explain.
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