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Please make up 12 sale values of your choice (numbers between 100 and 200) and enter these values in the Actual Sale column. Complete the
- Pleasemake up12 sale values of your choice (numbers between 100 and 200) and enter these values in the "Actual Sale" column. Complete the remaining columns table below using the indicated forecasting Method. Compute MADs, MSEs, and MAPEs.
Question:Which smoothing method is the best? Why?
With your own number, just duplicate what I did in the video lesson I provided to you...
You can use Excel
period | Actual sales | Naive forecast | forecast error | abs(forecast error) | square error | error/actual | Abs(error/actual) |
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MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
period | Actual sales | 3 period moving average | forecast error | abs(forecast error) | square error | error/actual | Abs(error/actual) |
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MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
period | Actual sales | 3 period centered moving average | forecast error | abs(forecast error) | square error | error/actual | Abs(error/actual) |
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MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
period (t) | Actual sales | 3 period weighted moving average | forecast error | abs(forecast error) | square error | error/actual | Abs(error/actual) |
1 | 0.15(wieght for t-3) | ||||||
2 | 0.35(weight for t-2) | ||||||
3 | 0.5(weight for t-1) | ||||||
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MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
period | Actual sales | exponential smoothing with alpha = .3 | forecast error | abs(forecast error) | square error | error/actual | Abs(error/actual) |
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MAD | MSE | MAPE |
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