1. Pleasemake up12 sale values of your choice (numbers between 100 and 200) and enter these values in the "Actual Sale" column. Complete the remaining columns table below using the indicated forecasting Method. Compute MADs, MSEs, and MAPEs.

Question:Which smoothing method is the best? Why?

With your own number, just duplicate what I did in the video lesson I provided to you...

You can use Excel

period	Actual sales	Naive forecast	forecast error	abs(forecast error)	square error	error/actual	Abs(error/actual)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
				MAD	MSE		MAPE
period	Actual sales	3 period moving average	forecast error	abs(forecast error)	square error	error/actual	Abs(error/actual)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
				MAD	MSE		MAPE
period	Actual sales	3 period centered moving average	forecast error	abs(forecast error)	square error	error/actual	Abs(error/actual)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
				MAD	MSE		MAPE
period (t)	Actual sales	3 period weighted moving average	forecast error	abs(forecast error)	square error	error/actual	Abs(error/actual)
1		0.15(wieght for t-3)
2		0.35(weight for t-2)
3		0.5(weight for t-1)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
				MAD	MSE		MAPE
period	Actual sales	exponential smoothing with alpha = .3	forecast error	abs(forecast error)	square error	error/actual	Abs(error/actual)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
				MAD	MSE		MAPE