Question
Please read carefully before answering. THE IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR OF D IS A NOT B A firm is planning a project for the development of a
Please read carefully before answering. THE IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR OF D IS A NOT B
A firm is planning a project for the development of a new product. Assume the network of activities and data that follow: Activity Immediate Predecessor Minimum Time (Weeks) Most Likely Time (Weeks) Maximum Time (Weeks) A 10 22 28 B A 4 4 10 C A 4 6 14 D A 3 5 13 E B, C 1 5 9 F C, D 7 8 9 G E, F 2 2 2 Using the PERT method (critical path method with three activity time estimates), calculate the expected time and standard deviation of the time for each activity. (If you don't know the critical path method or the PERT method, you may search online or read a regular textbook in project management or operations management.) Based on the expected time for each activity, using the critical path method, determine the project duration and critical path. Using the PERT method, estimate the probability of the project to be completed within 36 weeks. Using Monte Carlo Simulation, estimate the probability of the project to be completed within 36 weeks. Note that the time for each activity can be assumed to follow a normal distribution with the mean and standard deviation calculated in 1). You can use Excel or any other software package to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model. You may generate 1,000 simulation replications. For each replication, the simulation model should determine the project completion time based on the network of activities. Are the results derived from the PERT method in 3) and from the Monte Carlo Simulation in 4) the same? Discuss why or why not.
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