Question
Please read the below article and discuss what specific missing spending you believe it is replacing, and what resources theFederal Government has to service the
Please read the below article and discuss what specific missing spending you believe it is replacing, and what resources theFederal Government has to service the interest on the debt andeventually pay it back?
The U.S. Is About to Vastly Increase Its Debt. That's a Good Thing
The United States government is poised to take on a huge amount of debt to contain the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, with budget deficits on a scale not seen since World War II looking likely.
But the only thing worse for the public debt outlook would be if it didn't. That's why a broad range of economic analysts including even many fiscal conservatives who generally viewhigh public debt as a long-term threat support aggressive action.
The very large deficits on the way in 2020 are more likely to leave the United States in a better fiscal situation for the years ahead than an alternative in which the government is more tightfisted but fails to prevent the widespread collapse of American businesses or help workers in desperate financial straits.
Economists focus not on the absolute level of the debt, but on the interest costs to service it relative to the size of the economy. So a prolonged recession tends to be worse for the debt picture than some extra spending. Moreover, signals from financial markets suggest that the government should have little trouble borrowing vast sums of money on favorable terms.
Finally, this spending is meant to last only as long as needed to get the economy on track after the containment of the coronavirus pandemic, meaning it should be a one-time increase to public debt rather than an increase to permanent deficits.
The arithmetic of the budget deficit is stark. In forecasts prepared just before the outbreak became severe, the Congressional Budget Office projected a $1.1 trillion deficit this fiscal year, or 4.9 percent of G.D.P.
William Foster, the lead U.S. analyst at the credit rating firm Moody's, now expects it to be more like 10 percent to 12 percent. Fitch, another rating firm, estimated it will be 13 percent. Those numbers would exceed the previous post-World War II record for the deficit, which was in 2009, when it was 9.8 percent of G.D.P.
The exact numbers are still unknowable. The $2 trillion stimulus package has come together so quickly that the budget office has not had time to do its customary modeling of its fiscal impact. (Parts of the legislation are designed as loans, so the hit to the Treasury will be less than the headline number.) G.D.P. is a guessing game at this point.
But even many analysts who generally prefer fiscal restraint believe it's a good time to be borrowing a lot of money.
As the economic outlook dimmed over the last month, interest rates plunged to unprecedented lows. The United States government can issue 30-year bonds at only a 1.44 percent interest rate at Thursday's close and in inflation-adjusted terms, borrowing costs are negative.
The market for Treasury bonds has had periods of dysfunction in the last few weeks, causing a spike in longer-term rates, as major investors and foreign governments sold bonds and there were few buyers. But most signs are that this was caused by a global cash crunch, not fears of rising indebtedness by the United States.
Fitch Ratings, in affirming the nation's AAA credit rating Thursday, said that it believes "recent dislocations and illiquidity in the market for U.S. Treasuries reflect changes in the structure of the market and exceptional conditions, and do not signal heightened perceptions of U.S. credit risk on the part of investors."
If anything, with global central banks expanding bond-buying programs, a shortage of safe bonds in years ahead could be likelier than a glut. That would tend to keep interest rates low.
The Fed is now doing open-ended quantitative easing, buying Treasury and other bonds on a vast scale to try to push cash into fraying financial markets. And it has actively encouraged the rest of the government to take advantage of this cheap money.
"He told me, 'Think big, because the interest rates are low,'" House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said of the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, inan interviewwith the PBS NewsHour.
An important factor in projecting the impact on deficits and debts: Spending on the virus response is intended as a one-off, not as an increase in the structural spending levels and budget deficits the United States should expect to have indefinitely.
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