Please use Excel(Scroll down for Data)

Question1: Perform a three point moving average and forecast demand, in pounds, for salt for the first quarter of year 4. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Q2: Write down the MAD for the three point moving average. Please round to two decimal points.

Q3:Perform exponential smoothing (alpha= 0.2) and indicate your forecast for year 4. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Q4:Write down the MAD for exponential smoothing. Please round your answer to two decimal points.

Q5:Identify an optimal value for a . Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Q6:Develop the trend projection equation (simple linear regression) slope. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Q7:Develop the trend projection equation (simple linear regression) intercept. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Q8:What is the R² value? Please round your answer to four decimal places.

Q9:What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the first quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q10:What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the second quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q11:What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the third quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q12:What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the fourth quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q13: Write down the MAD projection. Please round your answer to two decimal places.

Q14: Write down the MAD projection. Please round your answer to two decimal places.

Q15:Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the second quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Q16: Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the third quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Q17: Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the fourth quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Q18: When is the busiest period (quarter)?

Q19: Develop the linear regression equation after de-seasonalizing the data. Please indicate the slope, rounding your answer to two decimal places.

Q20: Develop the linear regression equation after de-seasonalizing the data. Please indicate the intercept, rounding your answer to the nearest whole number

Q21:What is the R² value? Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Q22: What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the first quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q23: What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the second quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q24: What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the third quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Q25: What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the fourth quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Last question: Construct a scatter diagram showing the original data and the trend and seasonal forecast.

Summarize your findings and write a recommendation for the manager at Tahoe.

In your summary you should highlight (a) the forecasts using each method (b) the forecast errors using each method (c) the change in R2 from the linear trend model to the trend and seasonal model and the seasonal index values. Explain which is the best forecasting method and why you chose it.