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Europe faces a winter without Russian gas

There is still no official explanation for what caused the explosions that ruptured the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, sending natural gas gurgling to the surface of the Baltic Sea. But that hasn't stopped some E.U. officials from calling the episode an "act of sabotage," with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland publicly blaming Russia. Then last night, the pipelines' operator, Gazprom, threatened to shut down the only pipeline that's still pumping Russian gas to Western Europe.

The escalation caused natural gas prices to jump once again in Europe. The price of the benchmark Dutch TTF future contract for October has shot up by 20 percent over the past two trading sessions. Fearing further energy disruptions, investors sold off European stocks this morning, while the euro fell to a multidecade low against the dollar.

Here's what we know about the apparent attack, and its effect on the energy markets:

The Baltic Sea is a highly monitored waterway. Swedish seismologists said they had detected underwater explosions on Monday, The Times's Melissa Eddy reports. Ships were warned to steer clear of the waters as combustible gas was seen roiling patches of the sea. In response to the episode, Denmark and Norway announced increased security around their energy infrastructure.

It will have no immediate effect on European energy supplies.Nord Stream 2 never went into service, and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down since August. But the timing and location are worrying. The explosions occurred not far from the path of the Baltic Pipe project, a new gas transmission line that isslated to bring Norwegian gasto Poland and neighboring countries.

Associated Press

There's good news.Eurozone countries have reduced their reliance on Russian gas to less than 10 percent from about 40 percent last winter, according to Zongqiang Luo, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy. He added that European countries were two months ahead of schedule in filling their gas storage reserves to above 80 percent and, in some cases, above 90 percent.

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But there's also reason to worryIf Gazprom follows through on its threat to shut down the third pipeline to Western Europe, businesses and homeowners would feel it. "Whether Europe can survive the winter will be highly dependent upon voluntary gas cuts," Luo said. Any cuts to business output could leave the economic bloc more vulnerable to recession.