Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at the University of West Florida used regression...

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Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at the University of West Florida used regression analysis to build a model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections (Political Analysis, Vol. 17, 2009). The dependent variable of interest was Yt = percentage of the two-party vote won by the incumbent party's candidate in election year t. Independent variables included in the model are similar to those listed below.

a. Write first-order regression model for E1Yt2 as a function of the five independent variables.

i. The standard deviation of the model was reported as s = 2.36. Interpret this result, practically.

j. Do you recommend that the researchers use the model to predict the outcome of a future presidential election? Explain.

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