Question
Probability theory was used in a famous court case: People v. Collins.10 Inthis case a purse was snatched from an elderly person in a Los
Probability theory was used in a famous court case: People v. Collins.10 Inthis case a purse was snatched from an elderly person in a Los Angeles suburb.A couple seen running from the scene were described as a black man with abeard and a mustache and a blond girl with hair in a ponytail. Witnesses saidthey drove off in a partly yellow car. Malcolm and Janet Collins were arrested.He was black and though clean shaven when arrested had evidence of recentlyhaving had a beard and a mustache. She was blond and usually wore her hairin a ponytail. They drove a partly yellow Lincoln. The prosecution called aprofessor of mathematics as a witness who suggested that a conservative set ofprobabilities for the characteristics noted by the witnesses would be as shownin Table 4.5.The prosecution then argued that the probability that all of these characteristicsare met by a randomly chosen couple is the product of the probabilitiesor 1/12,000,000, which is very small. He claimed this was proof beyond a reasonabledoubt that the defendants were guilty. The jury agreed and handed down a verdict of guilty of second-degree robbery. man with mustache 1/4girl with blond hair 1/3girl with ponytail 1/10black man with beard 1/10 interracial couple in a car 1/1000 partly yellow car 1/10Table 4.5: Collins case probabilities.If you were the lawyer for the Collins couple how would you have countered the above argument?
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