Problem 1: Tires for All, Inc. (36 points) Tires for All, Inc. (TFA) was founded in 1998 in Caguas, Puerto Rico, as a company specialized in the repair and replacement of tires. TFA has grown successfully over the past few years, primarily through the efforts of its new CEO, Carlos Lpez. The tire replacement area is the largest in the company (they also perform oil changes and light mechanical repairs, among others). Lpez was surprised at how poor the forecasts were when he began his duties. The more experienced mechanic Roberto Marin, informed him that they usually stored the number of parts they had sold in the previous year. In addition, Marin admitted that on several occasions they suffered from stockout and some clients went to other companies for tires. Although many tire replacements were due to being defective or destroyed, most of the tires were installed on cars whose original tires had worn out. Most often, four tires were installed at the same time. Lopez was determined to get a better idea of how many tires to keep in stock during the different months of the year. Here is a summary of individual tire sales by month: Period gums Used 2015 October November December 9,797 11.134 10,687 2016 January February March April May June July August September October November December 9.724 8.786 9,254 10.691 9,256 8.700 10.192 10.751 9,724 10.193 11.599 11.130 From the above data, you must calculate the forecast for each month of 2016 (from January to December 2016) using the following methods: a. Moving Average of 3 periods (12 pts.). b. Weighted Moving Average with weights .10..30..60 (12 pts.). c. Exponential Smoothing with a = .4, and a December 2015 forecast of 9,500 units (12pts.). Problem 2: Tires for You, Inc. (26 points) After you graduated from your MBA, you landed a job at Tires for You (TFY), a company known for tire repair and replacement. One of your functions is to calculate the forecast monthly demand for tires. Using the following data you must: a make a graph showing the relationship between time and tires used, if any (10 pts.) b. establish the formula that will allow you to forecast (6 pts.) C. calculating the forecast for January, March, July, August and October 2017 (10 pts.) Period gums Used 2016 January February March April May June July August September October November 8,700 8,786 9,254 9,256 9,724 9,724 10,192 10,193 10,691 10.751 11.130 https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f December 11,599 Problem 3: Tires for Me, Inc. (22 points) Assume that you are the manager of the company Tires for Me (TEM), dedicated to the repair and replacement of tires. With the following information provided must calculate the index season Seasonal Index ) for each month (14 pts.). In addition, you must forecast the demand for each month of the following year considering that the forecast annual demand for 2019 is 168,000 rubbers (8 pts.). Period 2017 2018 2019 January 10,231 10,696 11.108 February 8,786 9,655 9.989 March 9,254 10,179 10.221 April 10.691 11,760 12,035 May 9,256 9.150 9,245 8,700 9,571 9,741 10,192 10,542 10.932 August 10.751 11.126 11,333 September 9.724 10,096 10.167 October 10,193 10,212 10.564 November 10.599 10.750 11,000 December 8,930 9,102 9,176 June July Problem 4: Tires for You, Inc. (54 points) After you graduated from your MBA, you landed a job at Tires for You (TFY), a company known for tire repair and replacement. 1. One of your functions is to calculate the forecast demand for tires for the months of April through December. Used the following the following techniques: a. 2-period Moving Average (4.5 pts.) b. Weighted Moving Average with weights.3, 2 and.5 (4.5 pts.) c. Exponential Smoothing with a =.3 and the March forecast of 10,000 (5pts.) Period Moving Weighted gums Used Exponential Average Moving Average Smoothing January 8,108 February 9,989 March 10,221 April 10,135 May 9,245 June 10,741 July 10,932 August 11,333 September 11,367 October 11,564 November 12.000 December 12,176 2. With the previous results: a Calculate the error using the CFE, MAD, MSE, MAPE (36 pts.) b. Select the technique that provides the least error by comparing the results of part a (4 pts.)