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PROBLEM 12-5: Valuation an American Option Given Risk-neutral probability 0.4626 Risk free Interest rate 5% Discount factor = exp(-Risk free interest rate) Strike (in $

PROBLEM 12-5: Valuation an American Option
Given
Risk-neutral probability 0.4626
Risk free Interest rate 5%
Discount factor = exp(-Risk free interest rate)
Strike (in $ millions) $ 23.00
Solution
Today Year One Year Two Year Three
$ 35.8300
$ 31.7800
$ 28.1900 $ 26.5500
Text Color Legend
Value of Beginning Oil Field Operations Now $ 25.000 $ 23.5500
NPV of waiting (NPV-Waiting)
NPV of Exercising Now (NPV-Now)
Value of American Option = max (NPV-Waiting,NPV-Now) $ 20.8800 $ 19.6600
Cell Outline Legend
$ 17.4400
Stock
Wait $ 14.5700
Exercise - drill
Impossible node
a.
b.

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