Problem 15-09

With the gasoline time series data from the given table, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using = 0.1.

Week	Sales (1000s of gallons)
1	17
2	21
3	19
4	23
5	18
6	16
7	20
8	18
9	22
10	20
11	15
12	22

1. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of = 0.1 or = 0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.

   	= 0.1	= 0.2
   MSE

   Prefer: 0.2
2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.

   	= 0.1	= 0.2
   MAE

   Prefer: 0.1
3. What are the results if MAPE is used? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.

   	= 0.1	= 0.2
   MAPE	%	%

   Prefer: 0.1