Problem 3-28 (Algo)

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

Period	Demand	Predicted
	1			126			113
	2			186			200
	3			146			150
	4			81			102
	5			76			80
	6			121			135
	7			116			128
	8			139			124
	9			104			109
	10			159			150
	11			114			94
	12			99			80
	13			134			140
	14			144			128

Click here for the Excel Data File

a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with = .10. (Round your intermediate calculations and finalanswers to 3 decimal places.)

t period	A demand	MAD t
1	126
2	186
3	146
4	81
5	76
6	121
7	116
8	139
9	104
10	159
11	114
12	99
13	134
14	144

b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and finalanswers to 3 decimal places.)

t period	A demand	MAD t
1	126
2	186
3	146
4	81
5	76
6	121
7	116
8	139
9	104
10	159
11	114
12	99
13	134
14	144