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Problem 5. (20 points.) You travel from JFK to Nanjing (China) with change of airplanes in Paris and Beijing. You have one piece of luggage.

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Problem 5. (20 points.) You travel from JFK to Nanjing (China) with change of airplanes in Paris and Beijing. You have one piece of luggage. At each stop your luggage is transferred from one airplane to another. At the airport in JFK there is a probability of 5% that your luggage is not placed in the right plane. This probability is 3% at the airport in Paris and 2% at the airport in Beijing. 1. What is the probability that your luggage does not reach Nanjing with you? 2. If your luggage does not reach Nanjing with you. what is the probability that it was lost at the airport of Paris? Problem 6. (20 points.) Your favorite team participates in a knock-out system that consists of four rounds. If your team has reached round t' . it will survive this round with a given probability of pig for t' = 1. . . . , 4. After the competition. you are informed that your team is not the nal winner. This is the only information you get about the tournament. What is the probability that your team was eliminated inroundifori=1,...,4

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