Project Case description: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurantjust completed its third year of operation. During those three years, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes In fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the Island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. The Excel file Vintagemlsx has the data. It shows the value of food and beverage sales (51,000s] for the rst three years of operation [Observations #1 12: Year 1; Observation #13 24: Year 2; Observations #25 - 36: Year 3). Analysis: Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarises your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern In the time series. 1- USiI'IB the dummy variable BPPFOBCHMWME m. For this, follow the steps below: a. First, create 11 dummy variables to represent the months January - November. Then use these variables in the regression model only with seasonal effects. b. Next, fit another regression model with both linear trend and seasonal effects. c. Compare these two models with respect to the forecast errors. You can use the "forecast accuracy template" posted on the website for these calculations. d. Based on the "best" model, generate the forecasts mentioned above. e. How would you explain these models and results to Karen? 3. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295, 000. What was your forecast error? If this error Is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure? Report Preparation: Please complete the following tasks for the report: a) Describe the problem background and purpose of the study b]: Describe the data and variables Included in the case c) Outline the statistical method required to answer the research questions d) Apply the models to answer the questions above sequentially a. Follow all steps required to conduct a complete analysis and validation of methods as outlined above e] Present the results nicely and interpret those fl Final conclusions, decision-making and recommendations based on the results to Karen