Q$\mathrm{.}2$ Set. $($B$)$ Following is the sales data of HDFC Bank Ltd$.[20$ Marks$]$

HDFC Bank Ltd$.$ Sales $($Annual$)$

Narration Mar$-13$ Mar$-14$ Mar$-15$ Mar$-16$ Mar$-17$ Mar$-18$ Mar$-19$ Mar$-20$ Mar$-21$ Mar$-22$

Sales $35,86142,55550,66663,16173,27185,2871,05,1601,22,1891,28,5521,35,936$

HDFC Bank Ltd$.$ Sales $($Quarterly$)$

Narration Mar$-20$ Jun$-20$ Sep$-20$ Dec$-20$ Mar$-21$ Jun$-21$ Sep$-21$ Dec$-21$ Mar$-22$ Jun$-22$

Sales $31,79532,35131,74231,85132,60632,25333,52034,58835,57437,273$

Additional information:

$$ Operating profit margin$=20\%$ of sales

$$ Tax rate $=25\%$ of operating profit

$$ Replacement of non$-$current asset investment $($RNCAI$)=$ in line with annual depreciation

$$ Additional non$-$current asset investment $($Fixed Assets$)$ for the next $5$yrs is $15\%$ of sales growth

$$ Additional working capital investment $($Working Capital$)$ for the next $5$yrs is $10\%$ of sales growth

$$ After year $5,$ sales are expected to stabilize at year $5$ level.

$$ Cost of capital is $15\%.$ Assume there is no debt component in the capital structure.

Using the above data and information, you are required to calculate:

$($a$)$ Yearly sales forecasting for next $5$ years period using trend analysis $($regression$)[5$ Marks$]$

$($b$)$ Seasonality sales forecasting using sensitivity analysis $[5$ Marks$]$

$($c$)$ What is the business value $($use DFCF method$)?[5$ Marks$]$

$($d$)$ What is the shareholder value at this growth rate of sales? $[5$ Marks$]$