Q-1 The manager of a National Forest is about to undertake a reforestation project in a burned out area. The project will involve the following six activities: ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR(S) DURATION ESTIMATES (days) OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMISTIC Start - U Start 35 50 65 V Start 28 40 52 W U, V 26 35 44 X V 28 40 52 Y X 26 29 38 Z Y, W 36 60 84 End Z What is the probability that the critical path for this project will be completed within 200 days? a. 0.9544. b. 0.8413 c. 0.9974 d. 0.9987 e. 0.9772

Q-2 A project superintendent is about to begin work on a freeway resurfacing project, which is comprised of the following activities:

Activity	Immediate Predecessor(s)	Durations (weeks)
		to	tm	tp
Start	-
A	Start	11	20	29
B	A	2	5	8
C	A	18	30	42
D	B	7	10	13
E	Start	31	40	43
End	C, D, E

What is the probability that the critical path for this project will be completed within 52 weeks?

a.

0.3108

b.

0.1554

c.

0.8277

d.

0.6554

e.

0.3466

Q-3 A project manager for Durable Construction Co. is about to build a house involving the following activities:

Activity	Immediate Predecessor(s)	Durations (days)
		Optimistic	Most likely	Pessimistic
Start	-
A	Start	44	50	56
B	Start	45	60	75
C	A	42	45	48
D	A, B	31	40	49
E	C	27	36	39
F	E, D	58	70	82
End	F

What is the probability that the critical path for this project will be completed within 210 days?

a.

0.9544

b.

0.5000

c.

0.9987

d.

0.8413

e.

0.9772