You are monitoring a new strategy. Initially, you believed that the strategy was just as likely to be up as it was to be down or flat on any given day, and that the probability of being up was fairly close to 50%. More specifically, your initial assumption was that the probability of being up, p, could be described by a beta distribution, β(4,4). Over the past 100 days, the strategy has been up 60 times.

 What is your new estimate for the distribution of the parameter p?

 What is the probability that the strategy will be up the next day?