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Q2: A farmer is considering to plant A or B for the next year. If there is not a frost next year, he will get
Q2: A farmer is considering to plant A or B for the next year. If there is not a frost next year, he will get $5000 return for planting A, and get $3000 return for planting B. If there is a frost next year, he will get $500 return for planting A, and get $2000 return for planting B. According to the historic frost data, there are 15 frosts in the last 50 years. Suppose that the farmer is risk neutral. Q2.1: What will the farmer plant if he does not buy the frost forecast? Q2.2: If the accuracy of frost forecast is only 0.9, what is the maximum amount that the farmer will pay for the frost forecast? Q2.3: What is the EVPI
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